As of October 24, 2026, 06:24 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Paul Giamatti at 91.5% in Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actor Nominations — $44.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Paul Giamatti, is priced at 91.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -1.0 pts.
Since October 14, 2026, Paul Giamatti has traded between 91.5% and 93.0%. It opened at 93.0% and last traded at 91.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 93.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 92.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 92.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 92.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 91.5% |
Paul Giamatti is favored at 91.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Giamatti | 92¢ | 91.5% | — | $697 | 1.6% |
| Andrew Garfield | 78¢ | 78.0% | +5.5 pts | $1.9K | 4.2% |
| Edward Norton | 78¢ | 78.0% | +21.0 pts | $1.3K | 2.9% |
| Sam Rockwell | 71¢ | 71.0% | -0.5 pts | $888 | 2.0% |
| Guitarricadelafuente | 68¢ | 68.0% | — | $2.5K | 5.7% |
| John Leguizamo | 68¢ | 67.5% | -5.0 pts | $3.6K | 8.1% |
| Robert Pattinson | 30¢ | 30.0% | -1.5 pts | $1.4K | 3.0% |
| Colman Domingo | 24¢ | 23.5% | +2.0 pts | $23 | 0.1% |
| Steve Buscemi | 19¢ | 19.0% | +8.0 pts | $2.3K | 5.2% |
| Riz Ahmed | 16¢ | 16.0% | -0.5 pts | $2.4K | 5.3% |
| John Goodman | 13¢ | 13.4% | -0.4 pts | $10.6K | 23.7% |
| Michael Fassbender | 9¢ | 9.4% | +0.5 pts | $57 | 0.1% |
| Skyler Gisondo | 8¢ | 8.5% | +1.0 pts | $474 | 1.1% |
| James Ortiz | 6¢ | 6.5% | — | $224 | 0.5% |
| Miles Teller | 6¢ | 6.2% | +0.7 pts | $341 | 0.8% |
| Jeremy Strong | 6¢ | 5.6% | -0.4 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Antonio Banderas | 5¢ | 5.3% | -0.4 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Guy Pearce | 5¢ | 4.9% | -5.2 pts | $498 | 1.1% |
| Channing Tatum | 4¢ | 4.5% | -1.1 pts | $173 | 0.4% |
| Himesh Patel | 4¢ | 4.2% | +0.7 pts | $1.4K | 3.1% |
| Adam Scott | 3¢ | 3.4% | — | $2.8K | 6.2% |
| Jesse Plemons | 3¢ | 3.0% | +0.4 pts | $1.7K | 3.8% |
| Tom Holland | 3¢ | 3.0% | — | $2.3K | 5.1% |
| Charles Melton | 3¢ | 2.8% | +0.1 pts | $1.7K | 3.7% |
| Robert De Niro | 2¢ | 2.5% | — | $658 | 1.5% |
| Daniel Craig | 1¢ | 1.4% | — | $4.8K | 10.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 91¢ / ask 92¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$44.7K has been traded on this event in total, $3.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 26 markets.
This market is scheduled to end March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 67 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 67 | $61 |
| Grumpy-Invader | Yes | 35 | $32 |
| Cool-Pattypan | Yes | 30 | $27 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 21 | $2 |
| Grim-Garage | No | 21 | $2 |
| Apt-Antecedent | No | 20 | $2 |
| Anxious-Sample-Precedent | No | 20 | $2 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 20 | $2 |
| Dense-Whip | No | 20 | $2 |
| Glamorous-Maternity-Anxiety | No | 10 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 09:56 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 69.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 09:53 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 71.0% | $87 |
| Oct 24, 09:53 AM ET | No | BUY | 29.0% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 09:53 AM ET | No | BUY | 29.0% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 09:53 AM ET | No | BUY | 28.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 09:53 AM ET | No | BUY | 28.0% | $46 |
| Oct 24, 09:53 AM ET | No | BUY | 28.0% | $17 |
| Oct 23, 01:55 PM ET | No | SELL | 29.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 01:47 PM ET | No | BUY | 85.0% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 01:47 PM ET | No | BUY | 84.4% | $182 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Paul Giamatti at 91.5%. Next is Andrew Garfield at 78.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2027-best-supporting-actor-nominations-20261013180153422?via=bro
$44.7K in total volume, with $3.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 26 markets.
The market is scheduled to end March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Paul Giamatti, priced at 91.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.