As of October 24, 2026, 08:12 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Dune: Part Three at 52.5% in Oscars 2027: Best Visual Effects Winner — $22.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Dune: Part Three, is priced at 52.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past month: -2.0 pts.
Since August 06, 2026, Dune: Part Three has traded between 32.5% and 60.5%. It opened at 32.5% and last traded at 52.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 55.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 52.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 52.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 52.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 52.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 52.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 52.5% |
Dune: Part Three is favored at 52.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dune: Part Three | 52¢ | 52.5% | — | $18.1K | 80.3% |
| Movie A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie P | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie Q | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie R | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie S | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie T | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie U | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie V | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie W | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie X | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie Y | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie Z | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Project Hail Mary | 26¢ | 26.0% | +0.5 pts | $1.9K | 8.5% |
| The Odyssey | 17¢ | 17.0% | -0.5 pts | $720 | 3.2% |
| Godzilla Minus Zero | 4¢ | 4.0% | -0.2 pts | $742 | 3.3% |
| Avengers: Doomsday | 3¢ | 3.0% | +0.1 pts | $591 | 2.6% |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 0¢ | 0.2% | -0.1 pts | $461 | 2.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 52¢ / ask 53¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$22.5K has been traded on this event in total, $4 of it in the last 24 hours, across 33 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Visual Effects. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Visual Effects when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.oscars.org/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,954 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ample-Instance | Yes | 1,954 | $1.0K |
| Fat-Fat-Hourglass | No | 1,748 | $830 |
| Nervous-Formula | No | 1,497 | $711 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 472 | $224 |
| Pink-Ascent | Yes | 442 | $232 |
| Definitive-Anticodon | Yes | 243 | $128 |
| Skeletal-Liver | Yes | 222 | $117 |
| 0xd4b727de… | Yes | 220 | $115 |
| 0xe636f179… | Yes | 219 | $115 |
| Crazykekbr | Yes | 195 | $102 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:59 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 25.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 08:57 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 53.0% | $17 |
| Oct 22, 08:57 AM ET | No | SELL | 47.0% | $16 |
| Oct 19, 06:04 PM ET | No | BUY | 75.0% | $6 |
| Oct 19, 10:28 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 52.0% | $5 |
| Oct 18, 02:02 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.3% | $5 |
| Oct 18, 09:59 AM ET | No | BUY | 48.0% | $4 |
| Oct 15, 01:15 AM ET | No | SELL | 45.0% | $0 |
| Oct 15, 01:15 AM ET | No | BUY | 47.1% | $11 |
| Oct 15, 01:15 AM ET | No | BUY | 48.0% | $10 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Dune: Part Three at 52.5%. Next is Movie A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2027-best-visual-effects-winner-1754500000000?via=bro
$22.5K in total volume, with $4 traded in the last 24 hours across 33 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.oscars.org/.
Dune: Part Three, priced at 52.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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