Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:20 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 15 at 54.5% in Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by...? — $8.4K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $97.
Leading outcome
November 15
55%
A 54.5% price implies roughly a 55-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +5.5 pts7D +3.0 pts
November 1554.5%
October 3122.0%
Bid
46¢
Ask
63¢
Spread
17¢
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Range since October 07, 2026: 32.5% – 78.0% · Opened at 64.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by...?
Category
Asia, Military, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Geopolitics, Military Actions, Military Strikes
Scheduled end
November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$8.4K
Volume (24h)
$97
Liquidity
$954
Markets
2
Leading outcome
November 15 — 54.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, November 15, is priced at 54.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +5.5 pts; past week: +3.0 pts.

Since October 07, 2026, November 15 has traded between 32.5% and 78.0%. It opened at 64.5% and last traded at 49.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202650.0%
Oct 17, 202632.5%
Oct 18, 202648.0%
Oct 19, 202646.0%
Oct 20, 202645.0%
Oct 22, 202656.5%
Oct 23, 202649.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

November 15 is favored at 54.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
November 1555¢54.5%+5.5 pts$5.1K61.0%
October 3122¢22.0%-1.5 pts$1.4K16.5%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 17¢ (bid 46¢ / ask 63¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$8.4K has been traded on this event in total, $97 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan takes a qualifying military action against Afghanistan between this market’s creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Afghanistan Time (AFT). Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Pakistan, that directly impacts Afghanistan. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Pakistan. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of Pakistan directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 986 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Orange-AsideNo986$449
Partial-AdrenalinYes500$272
Belated-GlueYes229$125
Tough-MaskYes197$108
Mammoth-Attachment-WitchhuntYes163$89
Traumatic-BakeryNo102$47
Second-Hand-ProblemYes54$30
Attentive-CrewmanYes40$22
Oddball-PoisonNo36$16
Sturdy-GrouseNo30$14

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $43 at 56.4%BUY Yes — $30 at 55.1%BUY Yes — $27 at 40.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 07:04 PM ETNoSELL52.0%$4
Oct 24, 06:55 PM ETNoBUY57.0%$4
Oct 24, 02:19 PM ETNoBUY45.0%$3
Oct 24, 12:22 PM ETNoBUY44.1%$9
Oct 24, 12:22 PM ETYesSELL57.0%$11
Oct 24, 11:32 AM ETNoBUY45.0%$7
Oct 24, 10:20 AM ETYesBUY51.0%$10
Oct 23, 04:38 AM ETYesSELL40.0%$2
Oct 23, 04:38 AM ETYesBUY46.0%$7
Oct 23, 04:05 AM ETNoBUY54.4%$15

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 15 at 54.5%. Next is October 31 at 22.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/pakistan-military-action-against-afghanistan-by-20261005?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by...??

$8.4K in total volume, with $97 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

November 15, priced at 54.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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