As of October 24, 2026, 08:20 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 15 at 54.5% in Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by...? — $8.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, November 15, is priced at 54.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +5.5 pts; past week: +3.0 pts.
Since October 07, 2026, November 15 has traded between 32.5% and 78.0%. It opened at 64.5% and last traded at 49.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 32.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 48.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 46.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 45.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 56.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 49.0% |
November 15 is favored at 54.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 15 | 55¢ | 54.5% | +5.5 pts | $5.1K | 61.0% |
| October 31 | 22¢ | 22.0% | -1.5 pts | $1.4K | 16.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 17¢ (bid 46¢ / ask 63¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$8.4K has been traded on this event in total, $97 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan takes a qualifying military action against Afghanistan between this market’s creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Afghanistan Time (AFT). Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Pakistan, that directly impacts Afghanistan. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Pakistan. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of Pakistan directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 986 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orange-Aside | No | 986 | $449 |
| Partial-Adrenalin | Yes | 500 | $272 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 229 | $125 |
| Tough-Mask | Yes | 197 | $108 |
| Mammoth-Attachment-Witchhunt | Yes | 163 | $89 |
| Traumatic-Bakery | No | 102 | $47 |
| Second-Hand-Problem | Yes | 54 | $30 |
| Attentive-Crewman | Yes | 40 | $22 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 36 | $16 |
| Sturdy-Grouse | No | 30 | $14 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:04 PM ET | No | SELL | 52.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 06:55 PM ET | No | BUY | 57.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 02:19 PM ET | No | BUY | 45.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 12:22 PM ET | No | BUY | 44.1% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 12:22 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 57.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 11:32 AM ET | No | BUY | 45.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 10:20 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 51.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 04:38 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 40.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 04:38 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 46.0% | $7 |
| Oct 23, 04:05 AM ET | No | BUY | 54.4% | $15 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 15 at 54.5%. Next is October 31 at 22.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/pakistan-military-action-against-afghanistan-by-20261005?via=bro
$8.4K in total volume, with $97 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
November 15, priced at 54.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.