As of October 24, 2026, 09:16 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 4.5% in Panama Canal effectively closed by...? — $464 traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 4.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -3.0 pts.
Since October 10, 2026, December 31 has traded between 4.5% and 22.0%. It opened at 22.0% and last traded at 4.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 6.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 7.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 7.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 7.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 6.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 4.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4.5% |
December 31 is favored at 4.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 4¢ | 4.5% | — | $3 | 0.6% |
| November 30 | 2¢ | 2.0% | -0.1 pts | $66 | 14.2% |
| October 31 | 1¢ | 1.1% | — | $145 | 31.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 7¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 8¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$464 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Panama Canal less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Panama Canal Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Panama Canal at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/44d73fd00bbc4f73a16d46d5beb11b4d , including both the chart and downloadable files.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Needy-Justification-Shark | Yes | 3 | $0 |
| Tricky-Usher | No | 3 | $3 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 10:02 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.2% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 04:16 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.9% | $10 |
| Oct 12, 03:04 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $48 |
| Oct 11, 09:27 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.8% | $5 |
| Oct 11, 09:03 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $5 |
| Oct 11, 09:02 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.2% | $10 |
| Oct 10, 08:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $55 |
| Oct 10, 07:46 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 37.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 4.5%. Next is November 30 at 2.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/panama-canal-effectively-closed-byptptpt?via=bro
$464 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 4.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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