As of October 24, 2026, 09:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 30 at 98.4% in Paris curfew effectively lifted by...? — $28.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, November 30, is priced at 98.4%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.4 pts.
Since October 22, 2026, November 30 has traded between 98.7% and 99.0%. It opened at 99.0% and last traded at 98.7%.
November 30 is favored at 98.4%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 98¢ | 98.4% | +0.4 pts | $378 | 1.4% |
| November 7 | 84¢ | 84.5% | -1.0 pts | $5.6K | 20.0% |
| October 31 | 53¢ | 53.0% | — | $10.0K | 35.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 97¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$28.0K has been traded on this event in total, $6.4K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 05:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any full calendar day between the day of market creation and the specified date, inclusive (Paris time), passes without any curfew in effect in any part of the City of Paris, France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A calendar day passes without any curfew in effect if, at no point between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM Paris time on that day, a curfew is in effect in any part of the City of Paris. The City of Paris refers to the municipality (commune) of Paris, within its official municipal boundaries. A curfew refers to a governmental order which generally prohibits the general population from being present in, or moving through, public spaces in the City of Paris, or a defined area of it, during a specific timeframe or specific hours. A curfew of any scope will count, whether citywide or limited to specific arrondissements, districts, or neighborhoods of the City of Paris, and must be officially declared by the City of Paris, the Paris Police Prefecture (Préfecture de police), or a French national authority. A broader curfew (e.g. department-wide or nationwide) will count so long as it applies to at least part of the City of Paris. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 199 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overdue-Sideboard | Yes | 199 | $196 |
| Dark-Flintlock | No | 60 | $1 |
| Grumpy-Invader | No | 50 | $1 |
| Fantastic-Cabinet | No | 20 | $0 |
| Wrong-Urn | No | 20 | $0 |
| Plump-Implementation | No | 20 | $0 |
| Adolescent-Hardcover-Difficulty | No | 19 | $0 |
| Puzzling-Consulate-Bestseller | No | 10 | $0 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 09:41 PM ET | No | SELL | 15.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 06:52 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 53.0% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 05:28 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 52.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 05:27 PM ET | No | BUY | 46.0% | $23 |
| Oct 24, 05:27 PM ET | No | BUY | 46.0% | $90 |
| Oct 24, 05:08 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 52.9% | $26 |
| Oct 24, 05:08 PM ET | No | BUY | 42.3% | $250 |
| Oct 24, 05:08 PM ET | No | BUY | 43.0% | $22 |
| Oct 24, 03:48 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 54.9% | $261 |
| Oct 24, 03:48 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 65.1% | $33 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:41 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 30 at 98.4%. Next is November 7 at 84.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/paris-curfew-effectively-lifted-by?via=bro
$28.0K in total volume, with $6.4K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 05:59 PM ET.
November 30, priced at 98.4% as of October 24, 2026, 09:41 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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