As of October 24, 2026, 06:27 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 95.3% in Paxton flips Talarico for Texas Senate by November 2? — $16.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 95.3%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.8 pts; past week: -9.8 pts.
Since October 16, 2026, No has traded between 85.5% and 94.6%. It opened at 85.5% and last traded at 94.6%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 85.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 85.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 85.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 92.8% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 93.8% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 94.6% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 94.6% |
No is favored at 95.3%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 95¢ | 95.3% | +0.8 pts | $16.1K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 5¢ | 4.7% | -0.8 pts | $16.1K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 5¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$16.1K has been traded on this event in total, $1.8K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 02, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ken Paxton (R)'s hourly odds value is higher than James Talarico (D)'s hourly odds value in the "Texas Senate Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as Ken Paxton (R) being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Ken Paxton (R) or James Talarico (D) in the "Texas Senate Election 2026" listing before November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,689 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flippant-Speech | No | 1,689 | $1.6K |
| Perfumed-Moat | Yes | 622 | $29 |
| Snappy-Warden | Yes | 400 | $19 |
| Little-Gold | No | 360 | $343 |
| Lean-Pantyhose | No | 300 | $286 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 238 | $11 |
| Grim-Garage | Yes | 202 | $9 |
| Attached-Schedule | Yes | 193 | $9 |
| Impure-Township | Yes | 183 | $9 |
| Wise-Baobab | Yes | 150 | $7 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:32 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 11:49 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.1% | $143 |
| Oct 24, 11:49 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.1% | $48 |
| Oct 24, 11:49 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.1% | $48 |
| Oct 24, 11:49 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $95 |
| Oct 24, 11:49 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.1% | $48 |
| Oct 24, 09:49 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.8% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 08:06 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.1% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 01:41 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.7% | $14 |
| Oct 22, 09:08 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.3% | $69 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 95.3%. Next is Yes at 4.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/paxton-flips-talarico-for-texas-senate-by-november-2?via=bro
$16.1K in total volume, with $1.8K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 02, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 95.3% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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