Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:59 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 94.7% in Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? — $47.4K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
No
95%
A 94.7% price implies roughly a 95-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D −0.2 pts30D +2.9 pts
No94.7%
Yes5.3%
Bid
5¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
1¢
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Range since June 10, 2026: 61.5% – 97.6% · Opened at 84.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?
Category
Peru Election, Elections, Politics
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$47.4K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$15.0K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 94.7%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 94.7%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.2 pts; past month: +2.9 pts.

Since June 10, 2026, No has traded between 61.5% and 97.6%. It opened at 84.0% and last traded at 94.7%.

DayClose
Oct 13, 202694.5%
Oct 15, 202694.5%
Oct 16, 202694.5%
Oct 18, 202694.5%
Oct 19, 202694.5%
Oct 20, 202694.5%
Oct 23, 202694.7%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 94.7%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No95¢94.7%—$47.4K100.0%
Yes5¢5.3%—$47.4K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$47.4K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case. A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid. Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,072 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Wan-GymnasticsNo1,072$1.0K
Self-Reliant-GatorYes846$45
Attractive-DoctrineNo698$661
Flamboyant-WarmingNo579$548
Victorious-BakeYes569$30
Which-DevianceYes239$13
Assured-ThoughtNo195$185
Verifiable-ObstacleYes173$9
Proper-AverageYes168$9
Irritating-VentiNo161$152

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $80 at 94.2%SELL No — $75 at 94.4%SELL No — $50 at 97.1%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 20, 09:40 AM ETNoSELL94.4%$75
Oct 14, 11:26 PM ETYesSELL5.5%$0
Oct 10, 10:25 PM ETNoSELL94.4%$20
Oct 05, 12:13 AM ETYesSELL5.0%$0
Oct 02, 02:01 PM ETYesSELL4.7%$0
Oct 02, 12:35 PM ETYesSELL5.0%$1
Sep 30, 08:41 PM ETNoSELL94.6%$19
Sep 30, 04:17 PM ETNoSELL94.5%$19
Sep 30, 04:17 PM ETYesBUY5.4%$5
Sep 27, 12:29 AM ETYesBUY3.3%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 94.7%. Next is Yes at 5.3%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/pedro-castillo-pardoned-in-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026??

$47.4K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 94.7% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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