As of October 24, 2026, 07:59 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 94.7% in Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? — $47.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 94.7%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.2 pts; past month: +2.9 pts.
Since June 10, 2026, No has traded between 61.5% and 97.6%. It opened at 84.0% and last traded at 94.7%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 94.7% |
No is favored at 94.7%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 95¢ | 94.7% | — | $47.4K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 5¢ | 5.3% | — | $47.4K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$47.4K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case. A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid. Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,072 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wan-Gymnastics | No | 1,072 | $1.0K |
| Self-Reliant-Gator | Yes | 846 | $45 |
| Attractive-Doctrine | No | 698 | $661 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | No | 579 | $548 |
| Victorious-Bake | Yes | 569 | $30 |
| Which-Deviance | Yes | 239 | $13 |
| Assured-Thought | No | 195 | $185 |
| Verifiable-Obstacle | Yes | 173 | $9 |
| Proper-Average | Yes | 168 | $9 |
| Irritating-Venti | No | 161 | $152 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 09:40 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.4% | $75 |
| Oct 14, 11:26 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.5% | $0 |
| Oct 10, 10:25 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.4% | $20 |
| Oct 05, 12:13 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $0 |
| Oct 02, 02:01 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.7% | $0 |
| Oct 02, 12:35 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $1 |
| Sep 30, 08:41 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.6% | $19 |
| Sep 30, 04:17 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.5% | $19 |
| Sep 30, 04:17 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.4% | $5 |
| Sep 27, 12:29 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.3% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 94.7%. Next is Yes at 5.3%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/pedro-castillo-pardoned-in-2026?via=bro
$47.4K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 94.7% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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