As of October 24, 2026, 07:44 PM ET, Polymarket traders price January 31, 2027 at 59.5% in Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...? — $903.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, January 31, 2027, is priced at 59.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.0 pts; past week: -7.0 pts.
Since October 15, 2026, January 31, 2027 has traded between 59.5% and 66.5%. It opened at 60.5% and last traded at 59.5%.
January 31, 2027 is favored at 59.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 31, 2027 | 60¢ | 59.5% | -1.0 pts | $10.2K | 1.1% |
| January 15, 2027 | 46¢ | 46.0% | — | $9.5K | 1.1% |
| December 31, 2026 | 14¢ | 14.5% | — | $498.3K | 55.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 59¢ / ask 60¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$903.9K has been traded on this event in total, $3.8K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Pedro Sánchez continuing as Prime Minister in an acting or caretaker capacity will not be considered a cessation of office. An announcement of Pedro Sánchez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,672 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Repulsive-Shackle | No | 1,672 | $677 |
| Immaterial-Stalk | No | 1,000 | $405 |
| Motionless-Administration | Yes | 885 | $527 |
| Ready-Progression | Yes | 765 | $455 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 374 | $222 |
| Afraid-Foray | Yes | 355 | $211 |
| Lined-Protein | Yes | 261 | $155 |
| Shameful-Cinnamon | Yes | 186 | $111 |
| Rotten-Alb | Yes | 113 | $67 |
| Perfumed-Moat | No | 106 | $43 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:55 PM ET | No | BUY | 40.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 05:04 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $150 |
| Oct 24, 03:15 PM ET | No | SELL | 85.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 03:15 PM ET | No | SELL | 85.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 03:15 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 14.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 03:15 AM ET | No | SELL | 84.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 03:15 AM ET | No | BUY | 86.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 03:15 AM ET | No | BUY | 86.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 03:15 AM ET | No | SELL | 84.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 03:15 AM ET | No | SELL | 84.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is January 31, 2027 at 59.5%. Next is January 15, 2027 at 46.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/pedro-snchez-out-as-pm-of-spain-by?via=bro
$903.9K in total volume, with $3.8K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
January 31, 2027, priced at 59.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.