As of October 24, 2026, 06:33 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Democratic Party at 57.5% in Pennsylvania State Senate Winner 2026? — $8.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Democratic Party, is priced at 57.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -14.0 pts; past month: +20.0 pts.
Since September 10, 2026, Democratic Party has traded between 23.5% and 71.5%. It opened at 23.5% and last traded at 57.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 54.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 57.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 58.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 58.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 65.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 57.5% |
Democratic Party is favored at 57.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 57¢ | 57.5% | -14.0 pts | $4.4K | 51.3% |
| Party A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Party F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Republican Party | 32¢ | 32.5% | +3.5 pts | $4.2K | 48.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 13¢ (bid 51¢ / ask 64¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$8.6K has been traded on this event in total, $220 of it in the last 24 hours, across 9 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the Pennsylvania State Senate in the 2026 Pennsylvania midterm election. A party wins control of the Pennsylvania Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Lieutenant Governor's Office as a result of the election. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the State Senate that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. If no such President Pro Tempore is chosen by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the following State Senate and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 757 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liquid-Argument | Yes | 757 | $435 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 581 | $247 |
| Crazy-Fishmonger | Yes | 497 | $286 |
| Playful-Manservant | No | 364 | $155 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 174 | $74 |
| Odd-Relish | Yes | 152 | $87 |
| Skeletal-Liver | No | 145 | $62 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 61 | $26 |
| 0x6d6514eab960a4afa0ce9b6d2a60039dabc23781 | No | 50 | $21 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 40 | $17 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:06 PM ET | No | SELL | 36.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 03:33 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 59.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 03:12 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 60.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 03:12 PM ET | No | BUY | 38.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 02:25 PM ET | No | BUY | 68.0% | $23 |
| Oct 24, 09:12 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 63.0% | $31 |
| Oct 24, 08:30 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 54.0% | $8 |
| Oct 23, 06:37 PM ET | No | BUY | 29.0% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 06:37 PM ET | No | BUY | 71.0% | $21 |
| Oct 23, 05:53 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 26.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Democratic Party at 57.5%. Next is Party A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/pennsylvania-state-senate-winner-2026?via=bro
$8.6K in total volume, with $220 traded in the last 24 hours across 9 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Democratic Party, priced at 57.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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