Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Pennsylvania State Senate Winner 2026?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:33 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Democratic Party at 57.5% in Pennsylvania State Senate Winner 2026? — $8.6K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $220.
Leading outcome
Democratic Party
57%
A 57.5% price implies roughly a 57-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −14.0 pts30D +20.0 pts
Democratic Party57.5%
Party A50.0%
Bid
51¢
Ask
64¢
Spread
13¢
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Range since September 10, 2026: 23.5% – 71.5% · Opened at 23.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Pennsylvania State Senate Winner 2026?
Category
Senate, Midterms, Politics, Elections, US Election, Pennsylvania Midterm
Scheduled end
November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$8.6K
Volume (24h)
$220
Liquidity
$34.4K
Markets
9
Leading outcome
Democratic Party — 57.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Democratic Party, is priced at 57.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -14.0 pts; past month: +20.0 pts.

Since September 10, 2026, Democratic Party has traded between 23.5% and 71.5%. It opened at 23.5% and last traded at 57.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202654.5%
Oct 18, 202657.5%
Oct 19, 202658.0%
Oct 20, 202658.0%
Oct 22, 202671.5%
Oct 23, 202665.5%
Oct 24, 202657.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Democratic Party is favored at 57.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Democratic Party57¢57.5%-14.0 pts$4.4K51.3%
Party A50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party B50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party C50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party D50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party E50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Party F50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Other50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Republican Party32¢32.5%+3.5 pts$4.2K48.7%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 13¢ (bid 51¢ / ask 64¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$8.6K has been traded on this event in total, $220 of it in the last 24 hours, across 9 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the Pennsylvania State Senate in the 2026 Pennsylvania midterm election. A party wins control of the Pennsylvania Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Lieutenant Governor's Office as a result of the election. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the State Senate that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. If no such President Pro Tempore is chosen by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the following State Senate and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 757 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Liquid-ArgumentYes757$435
0xa5ef39c3…No581$247
Crazy-FishmongerYes497$286
Playful-ManservantNo364$155
Belated-GlueNo174$74
Odd-RelishYes152$87
Skeletal-LiverNo145$62
Oddball-PoisonNo61$26
0x6d6514eab960a4afa0ce9b6d2a60039dabc23781No50$21
Gleaming-HandlebarNo40$17

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $51 at 73.0%SELL No — $42 at 70.0%BUY Yes — $31 at 63.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 04:06 PM ETNoSELL36.0%$3
Oct 24, 03:33 PM ETYesSELL59.0%$6
Oct 24, 03:12 PM ETYesSELL60.0%$18
Oct 24, 03:12 PM ETNoBUY38.0%$5
Oct 24, 02:25 PM ETNoBUY68.0%$23
Oct 24, 09:12 AM ETYesBUY63.0%$31
Oct 24, 08:30 AM ETYesBUY54.0%$8
Oct 23, 06:37 PM ETNoBUY29.0%$9
Oct 23, 06:37 PM ETNoBUY71.0%$21
Oct 23, 05:53 PM ETYesSELL26.0%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Pennsylvania State Senate Winner 2026??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Democratic Party at 57.5%. Next is Party A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/pennsylvania-state-senate-winner-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Pennsylvania State Senate Winner 2026??

$8.6K in total volume, with $220 traded in the last 24 hours across 9 markets.

When does Pennsylvania State Senate Winner 2026? end?

The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Pennsylvania State Senate Winner 2026?, according to Polymarket traders?

Democratic Party, priced at 57.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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