Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:23 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 20.5% in Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...? — $622.4K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $5.1K.
Leading outcome
December 31
20%
A 20.5% price implies roughly a 20-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D −10.0 pts30D −2.0 pts
December 3120.5%
November 309.5%
Bid
20¢
Ask
21¢
Spread
1¢
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Range since September 17, 2026: 11.5% – 69.0% · Opened at 64.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?
Category
Iran, Yemen, Houthis, Politics, Geopolitics, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Bab el-Mandeb
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$622.4K
Volume (24h)
$5.1K
Liquidity
$74.1K
Markets
3
Leading outcome
December 31 — 20.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 20.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: -10.0 pts; past month: -2.0 pts.

Since September 17, 2026, December 31 has traded between 11.5% and 69.0%. It opened at 64.0% and last traded at 20.5%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202631.0%
Oct 16, 202633.0%
Oct 18, 202630.0%
Oct 19, 202628.5%
Oct 20, 202621.5%
Oct 23, 202620.5%
Oct 24, 202620.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 20.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3120¢20.5%—$237.0K38.1%
November 3010¢9.5%-2.0 pts$28.0K4.5%
October 313¢2.8%-0.4 pts$271.7K43.7%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 20¢ / ask 21¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$622.4K has been traded on this event in total, $5.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen. “No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 12,393 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Near-FamiliarNo12,393$9.9K
Accurate-SpiritYes6,912$1.4K
Sophisticated-PosteriorNo5,671$4.5K
Agonizing-ExamYes4,394$901
Whimsical-TerminalYes4,010$822
Scarce-RabbiNo2,342$1.9K
Quick-TherapistNo2,123$1.7K
Tough-GarterYes1,925$395
Awesome-AvailabilityYes1,307$268
NoSteinNoGateYes1,263$259

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $528 at 96.3%BUY No — $484 at 96.9%SELL No — $479 at 97.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 04:49 PM ETYesSELL2.5%$1
Oct 24, 03:39 PM ETNoSELL96.8%$3
Oct 24, 08:45 AM ETNoSELL88.9%$213
Oct 24, 08:44 AM ETNoSELL97.0%$479
Oct 24, 08:17 AM ETNoSELL97.3%$22
Oct 24, 07:43 AM ETYesSELL8.5%$24
Oct 24, 07:43 AM ETYesSELL2.6%$66
Oct 24, 07:40 AM ETYesBUY3.2%$1
Oct 24, 07:34 AM ETYesBUY3.2%$1
Oct 24, 06:31 AM ETNoBUY96.9%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 20.5%. Next is November 30 at 9.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/perim-island-no-longer-under-houthi-control-by-20260916?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...??

$622.4K in total volume, with $5.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.

When does Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 20.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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