As of October 24, 2026, 06:23 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 20.5% in Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...? — $622.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 20.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -10.0 pts; past month: -2.0 pts.
Since September 17, 2026, December 31 has traded between 11.5% and 69.0%. It opened at 64.0% and last traded at 20.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 31.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 33.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 30.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 28.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 21.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 20.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 20.5% |
December 31 is favored at 20.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 20¢ | 20.5% | — | $237.0K | 38.1% |
| November 30 | 10¢ | 9.5% | -2.0 pts | $28.0K | 4.5% |
| October 31 | 3¢ | 2.8% | -0.4 pts | $271.7K | 43.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 20¢ / ask 21¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$622.4K has been traded on this event in total, $5.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen. “No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 12,393 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Near-Familiar | No | 12,393 | $9.9K |
| Accurate-Spirit | Yes | 6,912 | $1.4K |
| Sophisticated-Posterior | No | 5,671 | $4.5K |
| Agonizing-Exam | Yes | 4,394 | $901 |
| Whimsical-Terminal | Yes | 4,010 | $822 |
| Scarce-Rabbi | No | 2,342 | $1.9K |
| Quick-Therapist | No | 2,123 | $1.7K |
| Tough-Garter | Yes | 1,925 | $395 |
| Awesome-Availability | Yes | 1,307 | $268 |
| NoSteinNoGate | Yes | 1,263 | $259 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:49 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.5% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 03:39 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.8% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 08:45 AM ET | No | SELL | 88.9% | $213 |
| Oct 24, 08:44 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.0% | $479 |
| Oct 24, 08:17 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.3% | $22 |
| Oct 24, 07:43 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.5% | $24 |
| Oct 24, 07:43 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.6% | $66 |
| Oct 24, 07:40 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.2% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 07:34 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.2% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 06:31 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.9% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 20.5%. Next is November 30 at 9.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/perim-island-no-longer-under-houthi-control-by-20260916?via=bro
$622.4K in total volume, with $5.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 20.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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