As of October 24, 2026, 06:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 78.0% in Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? — $691.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 78.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: -2.5 pts; past month: -1.5 pts.
Since April 01, 2026, No has traded between 55.5% and 84.5%. It opened at 74.0% and last traded at 78.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 75.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 75.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 70.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 75.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 77.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 78.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 78.0% |
No is favored at 78.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 78¢ | 78.0% | -0.5 pts | $691.2K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 22¢ | 22.0% | +0.5 pts | $691.2K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 21¢ / ask 23¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$691.2K has been traded on this event in total, $6.9K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 29,717 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smoggy-Antique | Yes | 29,717 | $6.5K |
| Hasty-Chain | Yes | 24,557 | $5.4K |
| Tinted-Drapes | Yes | 20,351 | $4.5K |
| Double-Scrim | Yes | 20,214 | $4.4K |
| Sticky-Closing | No | 19,383 | $15.1K |
| Unripe-Whisker | No | 17,167 | $13.4K |
| Hoarse-Almanac | Yes | 16,421 | $3.6K |
| Gruesome-Media | No | 16,170 | $12.6K |
| Substantial-Coupon | No | 11,121 | $8.7K |
| Smoggy-Sunglasses | No | 10,469 | $8.2K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:43 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 21.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 06:37 PM ET | No | BUY | 79.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 06:20 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 21.0% | $21 |
| Oct 24, 03:20 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.0% | $32 |
| Oct 24, 02:29 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 02:26 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 01:20 PM ET | No | SELL | 77.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 12:40 PM ET | No | BUY | 78.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 12:19 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.0% | $25 |
| Oct 24, 12:08 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.0% | $25 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 78.0%. Next is Yes at 22.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-december-31?via=bro
$691.2K in total volume, with $6.9K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 78.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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