As of October 24, 2026, 06:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 84.5% in Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? — $21.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 84.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -7.0 pts.
Since October 02, 2026, No has traded between 82.5% and 91.5%. It opened at 91.5% and last traded at 85.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 87.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 82.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 85.0% |
No is favored at 84.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 84¢ | 84.5% | — | $21.4K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 16¢ | 15.5% | — | $21.4K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 14¢ / ask 17¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$21.4K has been traded on this event in total, $8.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 4,849 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smoggy-Antique | Yes | 4,849 | $752 |
| Calm-Dusk | No | 1,631 | $1.4K |
| Palatable-Argument | No | 1,546 | $1.3K |
| Excited-Carol | No | 1,170 | $989 |
| Hideous-Racer | No | 1,000 | $845 |
| Troubled-Pet | Yes | 986 | $153 |
| Punctual-Sand | No | 839 | $709 |
| Quick-Witted-Terminology | Yes | 784 | $121 |
| Genuine-Segment | No | 684 | $578 |
| Impartial-Sailboat | No | 660 | $558 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:47 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 17.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 06:47 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 04:53 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 13.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 03:41 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $40 |
| Oct 24, 03:34 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $185 |
| Oct 24, 03:34 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $28 |
| Oct 24, 12:44 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 10:17 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $22 |
| Oct 24, 09:49 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 09:49 AM ET | No | SELL | 85.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 84.5%. Next is Yes at 15.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-november-30-20261001003401433?via=bro
$21.4K in total volume, with $8.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 84.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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