As of October 24, 2026, 06:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 98.8% in Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31? — $51.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 98.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.2 pts; past week: -4.0 pts; past month: -4.3 pts.
Since September 03, 2026, No has traded between 86.0% and 99.0%. It opened at 89.5% and last traded at 99.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 94.8% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 96.2% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 96.8% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.8% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 98.8% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 99.0% |
No is favored at 98.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 99¢ | 98.8% | +0.2 pts | $51.2K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 1¢ | 1.2% | -0.2 pts | $51.2K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 2¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$51.2K has been traded on this event in total, $9.5K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 07:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 7,187 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xef97d61b… | No | 7,187 | $7.1K |
| Downright-Website | No | 6,790 | $6.7K |
| Grim-Garage | Yes | 4,572 | $55 |
| Bad-Fool-Enrollment | Yes | 4,363 | $52 |
| Attached-Example-Anesthesiologist | No | 3,879 | $3.8K |
| Legitimate-Airman | No | 3,382 | $3.3K |
| Stunning-Verification-Lute | Yes | 3,144 | $38 |
| Cheery-Preparation | No | 2,722 | $2.7K |
| Essential-Diarist | Yes | 2,517 | $30 |
| Dual-Cephalopod | Yes | 2,450 | $29 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:07 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.3% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 12:20 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.4% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 12:20 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.4% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 12:20 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.4% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 12:20 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.4% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 12:20 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.4% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 12:20 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.1% | $5.6K |
| Oct 24, 12:20 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.4% | $585 |
| Oct 24, 01:20 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.7% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 12:45 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.7% | $70 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 98.8%. Next is Yes at 1.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-october-31?via=bro
$51.2K in total volume, with $9.5K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 07:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 98.8% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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