As of October 24, 2026, 08:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 97.0% in Phoebe Gates arrested by December 31? — $3.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 97.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.4 pts; past month: +1.9 pts.
Since August 14, 2026, No has traded between 92.5% and 99.6%. It opened at 96.0% and last traded at 97.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 97.4% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 97.4% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 97.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 97.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.2% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 97.0% |
No is favored at 97.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 97¢ | 97.0% | — | $3.1K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 3¢ | 2.9% | — | $3.1K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.1K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,800 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| WJB | Yes | 1,800 | $53 |
| Prickly-Signup | No | 1,655 | $1.6K |
| Flashy-Label | No | 480 | $466 |
| Straight-Hunting | Yes | 238 | $7 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 80 | $2 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 33 | $1 |
| Unlined-Pole | No | 30 | $29 |
| Grim-Cob | No | 22 | $21 |
| Ordinary-Conservation | Yes | 20 | $1 |
| Snappy-Rooster | Yes | 20 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 12:42 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.2% | $0 |
| Oct 12, 04:40 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.7% | $78 |
| Oct 11, 07:22 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.3% | $5 |
| Sep 30, 06:34 AM ET | No | SELL | 99.0% | $8 |
| Sep 29, 02:08 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.3% | $0 |
| Sep 27, 04:38 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.6% | $5 |
| Sep 24, 06:41 PM ET | No | SELL | 99.4% | $1 |
| Sep 23, 01:17 AM ET | No | SELL | 99.5% | $45 |
| Sep 20, 08:48 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.4% | $0 |
| Sep 20, 08:48 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.5% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 97.0%. Next is Yes at 2.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/phoebe-gates-arrested-by-december-31?via=bro
$3.1K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 97.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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