Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Phoebe Gates arrested by December 31?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 97.0% in Phoebe Gates arrested by December 31? — $3.1K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
No
97%
A 97.0% price implies roughly a 97-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D +0.4 pts30D +1.9 pts
No97.0%
Yes2.9%
Bid
2¢
Ask
4¢
Spread
3¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since August 14, 2026: 92.5% – 99.6% · Opened at 96.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Phoebe Gates arrested by December 31?
Category
Tech, arrest, Culture, arrested, bill gates, Celebrities
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$3.1K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$4.1K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 97.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 97.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.4 pts; past month: +1.9 pts.

Since August 14, 2026, No has traded between 92.5% and 99.6%. It opened at 96.0% and last traded at 97.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202697.4%
Oct 16, 202697.4%
Oct 18, 202697.5%
Oct 19, 202697.5%
Oct 20, 202697.2%
Oct 24, 202697.0%
Oct 24, 202697.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 97.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No97¢97.0%—$3.1K100.0%
Yes3¢2.9%—$3.1K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$3.1K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,800 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
WJBYes1,800$53
Prickly-SignupNo1,655$1.6K
Flashy-LabelNo480$466
Straight-HuntingYes238$7
Known-UseYes80$2
Belated-GlueYes33$1
Unlined-PoleNo30$29
Grim-CobNo22$21
Ordinary-ConservationYes20$1
Snappy-RoosterYes20$1

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $455 at 95.0%BUY No — $92 at 92.0%SELL No — $78 at 97.7%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 14, 12:42 PM ETYesSELL1.2%$0
Oct 12, 04:40 AM ETNoSELL97.7%$78
Oct 11, 07:22 AM ETNoSELL98.3%$5
Sep 30, 06:34 AM ETNoSELL99.0%$8
Sep 29, 02:08 PM ETYesSELL0.3%$0
Sep 27, 04:38 AM ETNoBUY99.6%$5
Sep 24, 06:41 PM ETNoSELL99.4%$1
Sep 23, 01:17 AM ETNoSELL99.5%$45
Sep 20, 08:48 PM ETYesSELL0.4%$0
Sep 20, 08:48 PM ETYesSELL0.5%$0

Related markets

More Tech

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Phoebe Gates arrested by December 31??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 97.0%. Next is Yes at 2.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/phoebe-gates-arrested-by-december-31?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Phoebe Gates arrested by December 31??

$3.1K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Phoebe Gates arrested by December 31? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Phoebe Gates arrested by December 31?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 97.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

Trade it on Polymarket

Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.

Sign Up on Polymarket

New here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.