As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Mutfwang Caleb Manasseh at 82.0% in Plateau, Nigeria Governor Election Winner — $12.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Mutfwang Caleb Manasseh, is priced at 82.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past month: +5.5 pts.
Since August 21, 2026, Mutfwang Caleb Manasseh has traded between 54.0% and 82.0%. It opened at 54.0% and last traded at 82.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 81.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 82.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 82.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 82.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 82.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 82.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 82.0% |
Mutfwang Caleb Manasseh is favored at 82.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mutfwang Caleb Manasseh | 82¢ | 82.0% | — | $8.4K | 69.0% |
| Candidate A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate P | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Q | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate R | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate S | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate T | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate U | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate V | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate W | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate X | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Y | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Z | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Kefas Ropshik | 15¢ | 15.2% | +2.2 pts | $656 | 5.4% |
| John Sunday Sura | 3¢ | 2.5% | -1.2 pts | $228 | 1.9% |
| Margaret Inusa Yahaya | 2¢ | 2.1% | -0.1 pts | $140 | 1.2% |
| Sunday Garba Biggs | 1¢ | 1.2% | -0.9 pts | $2.7K | 22.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 81¢ / ask 83¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$12.2K has been traded on this event in total, $8 of it in the last 24 hours, across 32 markets.
This market is scheduled to end February 06, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Plateau State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Plateau State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,040 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dull-Universe | Yes | 1,040 | $853 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 596 | $107 |
| Near-Familiar | No | 338 | $61 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 170 | $31 |
| Skeletal-Liver | No | 105 | $19 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 93 | $17 |
| Yummy-Winter | Yes | 80 | $66 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 73 | $59 |
| 0xc24fa1e0… | Yes | 70 | $58 |
| Arctic-Kickoff | Yes | 67 | $55 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 03:02 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.2% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 03:57 AM ET | No | SELL | 83.1% | $29 |
| Oct 21, 02:37 AM ET | No | SELL | 85.8% | $30 |
| Oct 21, 02:36 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.2% | $9 |
| Oct 09, 02:56 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.9% | $7 |
| Oct 09, 02:56 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.5% | $12 |
| Oct 04, 01:51 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 79.0% | $25 |
| Oct 03, 05:53 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 77.0% | $1 |
| Oct 03, 05:53 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 78.0% | $0 |
| Oct 03, 05:52 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 79.0% | $20 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Mutfwang Caleb Manasseh at 82.0%. Next is Candidate A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/plateau-nigeria-governor-election-winner?via=bro
$12.2K in total volume, with $8 traded in the last 24 hours across 32 markets.
The market is scheduled to end February 06, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Mutfwang Caleb Manasseh, priced at 82.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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