As of October 24, 2026, 07:49 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 88.0% in Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? — $160.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 88.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +2.0 pts; past month: +0.5 pts.
Since November 05, 2025, No has traded between 36.0% and 95.5%. It opened at 51.5% and last traded at 87.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 91.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 90.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 90.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 86.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 87.0% |
No is favored at 88.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 88¢ | 88.0% | +0.5 pts | $160.3K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 12¢ | 12.0% | -0.5 pts | $160.3K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 9¢ / ask 15¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$160.3K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 33,594 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Embarrassed-Juggernaut | No | 33,594 | $29.6K |
| Worse-Scenario | Yes | 5,451 | $654 |
| Mammoth-Countess | Yes | 4,446 | $534 |
| Dependable-Scrambled | Yes | 4,000 | $480 |
| Earnest-Error | Yes | 2,844 | $341 |
| Old-Fashioned-Enzyme | No | 2,587 | $2.3K |
| Monumental-Airspace | Yes | 1,989 | $239 |
| Pristine-Veteran | No | 1,535 | $1.4K |
| Practical-Thunderstorm | Yes | 1,489 | $179 |
| Miserly-Pass | Yes | 1,185 | $142 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 04:12 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $0 |
| Oct 19, 01:44 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.2% | $2 |
| Oct 19, 09:56 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.8% | $47 |
| Oct 18, 02:45 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.5% | $5 |
| Oct 15, 12:36 AM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $5 |
| Oct 11, 07:33 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.9% | $2 |
| Oct 11, 07:19 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.3% | $12 |
| Oct 11, 01:19 AM ET | No | SELL | 85.0% | $3 |
| Oct 11, 01:19 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.2% | $16 |
| Oct 10, 11:09 PM ET | No | SELL | 85.2% | $91 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 88.0%. Next is Yes at 12.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/poilievre-out-as-leader-of-conservatives-before-2027?via=bro
$160.3K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 88.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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