As of October 24, 2026, 07:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 70-120mm at 96.7% in Precipitation in Hong Kong in October? — $60.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 70-120mm, is priced at 96.7%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.1 pts; past week: +8.6 pts.
Since September 30, 2026, 70-120mm has traded between 17.5% and 97.3%. It opened at 17.5% and last traded at 96.7%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 82.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 87.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 85.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 87.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 84.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.3% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 96.7% |
70-120mm is favored at 96.7%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70-120mm | 97¢ | 96.7% | -0.1 pts | $28.3K | 47.1% |
| 120-210mm | 1¢ | 1.2% | +0.1 pts | $15.3K | 25.4% |
| 210mm+ | 1¢ | 1.2% | — | $4.1K | 6.9% |
| <20mm | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $2.9K | 4.9% |
| 40-50mm | 0¢ | 0.1% | -0.1 pts | $3.2K | 5.4% |
| 50-70mm | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $4.1K | 6.9% |
| 20-40mm | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $2.0K | 3.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 95¢ / ask 99¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$60.0K has been traded on this event in total, $6 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 07, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between October 1 and October 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in October 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range. If the relevant data is not available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,732 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Judicious-Corsage-Transaction | Yes | 2,732 | $2.6K |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 2,618 | $88 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 1,697 | $57 |
| Violent-Dickey-Bathhouse | Yes | 1,295 | $1.3K |
| Wiggly-Horizon | Yes | 921 | $890 |
| Poised-Elixir | Yes | 449 | $434 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 417 | $14 |
| Heavenly-Mocha | Yes | 278 | $269 |
| Velvety-Burn | No | 267 | $9 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 227 | $219 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:21 AM ET | No | SELL | 1.3% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 12:23 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.1% | $79 |
| Oct 23, 03:25 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.4% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 02:24 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.0% | $175 |
| Oct 22, 10:37 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.0% | $13 |
| Oct 22, 08:58 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 07:36 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.1% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 05:37 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.1% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 05:37 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.1% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 06:41 AM ET | No | SELL | 1.4% | $7 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 70-120mm at 96.7%. Next is 120-210mm at 1.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/precipitation-in-hong-kong-in-october-20260925t160000000z?via=bro
$60.0K in total volume, with $6 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 07, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
70-120mm, priced at 96.7% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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