As of October 24, 2026, 06:31 PM ET, Polymarket traders price <3" at 94.0% in Precipitation in NYC in October? — $42.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, <3", is priced at 94.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +34.5 pts.
Since September 30, 2026, <3" has traded between 30.0% and 94.5%. It opened at 35.5% and last traded at 94.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 32.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 41.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 72.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 88.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 94.0% |
<3" is favored at 94.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <3" | 94¢ | 94.0% | -0.5 pts | $22.8K | 53.5% |
| 3-4.25" | 3¢ | 2.5% | -0.5 pts | $10.0K | 23.5% |
| 4.25-4.75" | 1¢ | 1.1% | -0.1 pts | $1.7K | 3.9% |
| >6.25" | 1¢ | 0.6% | +0.1 pts | $4.2K | 9.9% |
| 5.25-6.25" | 0¢ | 0.5% | +0.1 pts | $1.2K | 2.8% |
| 4.75-5.25" | 0¢ | 0.3% | — | $2.7K | 6.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 93¢ / ask 95¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$42.7K has been traded on this event in total, $1.0K of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 07, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between October 1 and October 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for October 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of October 2026. If the relevant data is not available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 955 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sore-Pitching | Yes | 955 | $898 |
| Judicious-Corsage-Transaction | Yes | 917 | $862 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 789 | $47 |
| Winged-Holder | No | 745 | $45 |
| Absolute-Reply | Yes | 539 | $507 |
| Agitated-Mobster | No | 508 | $31 |
| Unique-Primary | Yes | 355 | $333 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 238 | $14 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 219 | $13 |
| Outrageous-Afterlife | No | 210 | $13 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:16 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 92.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 12:16 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 94.6% | $225 |
| Oct 24, 08:54 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.9% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 08:54 AM ET | No | BUY | 4.9% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 08:54 AM ET | No | BUY | 4.9% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 08:54 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.7% | $98 |
| Oct 24, 08:54 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.2% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 08:54 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 08:54 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $21 |
| Oct 24, 08:54 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $11 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is <3" at 94.0%. Next is 3-4.25" at 2.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/precipitation-in-nyc-in-october-2026?via=bro
$42.7K in total volume, with $1.0K traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 07, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
<3", priced at 94.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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