As of October 24, 2026, 08:18 PM ET, Polymarket traders price PQ 20-29 at 84.7% in Quebec General Election: # of Seats Margin of Victory? — $10.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, PQ 20-29, is priced at 84.7%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -13.2 pts; past week: +42.2 pts; past month: +60.7 pts.
Since September 22, 2026, PQ 20-29 has traded between 14.0% and 98.0%. It opened at 31.0% and last traded at 98.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 43.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 40.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 36.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 34.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 34.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 80.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 98.0% |
PQ 20-29 is favored at 84.7%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PQ 20-29 | 85¢ | 84.7% | -13.2 pts | $3.9K | 37.4% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| PQ 10-19 | 4¢ | 4.3% | +2.9 pts | $2.8K | 26.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 30¢ (bid 70¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$10.5K has been traded on this event in total, $152 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 05, 2026, 07:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats controlled by the first and second place parties in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of the next Quebec general election. The first and second place parties will be the parties that respectively control the first and second most seats as a result of the specified election. If any non-listed party wins the most seats as a result of this election, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins” If the first and second place parties control the same number of seats, or if the results of the election aren’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the relevant parties, not any coalition or alliance of which they may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Quebec government, specifically Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Resolution source: https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,167 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| mrworldwide | Yes | 1,167 | $989 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 811 | $124 |
| FrankyFourFingers | Yes | 308 | $261 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 221 | $34 |
| Blissful-Gymnastics-Development | Yes | 166 | $141 |
| Same-Deodorant | No | 108 | $17 |
| Grumpy-Invader | No | 100 | $15 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 82 | $13 |
| Remote-Statue-Loaf | No | 81 | $12 |
| Attentive-Crewman | No | 60 | $9 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.1% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 10:32 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 99.8% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 10:32 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 99.8% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 10:32 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 96.1% | $86 |
| Oct 24, 07:07 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.5% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 04:54 PM ET | No | SELL | 0.2% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 03:44 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 96.2% | $67 |
| Oct 23, 12:38 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.9% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 11:56 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.2% | $27 |
| Oct 23, 11:56 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 96.4% | $6 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is PQ 20-29 at 84.7%. Next is Other at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/quebec-general-election-of-seats-margin-of-victory-2?via=bro
$10.5K in total volume, with $152 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 05, 2026, 07:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/.
PQ 20-29, priced at 84.7% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.