As of October 24, 2026, 08:20 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 4.2% in Ren Zhengfei confirmed outside China by...? — $7.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 4.2%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.1 pts; past week: +1.1 pts; past month: -3.3 pts.
Since September 17, 2026, December 31 has traded between 2.5% and 17.5%. It opened at 17.0% and last traded at 4.3%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 2.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 2.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 3.1% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 3.1% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 3.1% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4.1% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 4.3% |
December 31 is favored at 4.2%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 4¢ | 4.2% | +0.1 pts | $4.0K | 50.9% |
| October 31 | 1¢ | 0.9% | +0.4 pts | $3.1K | 39.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$7.9K has been traded on this event in total, $20 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Ren Zhengfei was outside China at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both the presence outside China and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside China occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed. Ren Zhengfei need not depart China during the market window, nor remain outside China at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside China at market creation, his confirmed presence outside China during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to China. China is defined as territory administered by the People's Republic of China, including Hong Kong and Macau and excluding Taiwan. In cases where Ren Zhengfei may have exited Chinese airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than China for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Ren Zhengfei exits Chinese maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 769 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spanish-Priority | No | 769 | $736 |
| Short-Term-Icebreaker | Yes | 492 | $21 |
| Essential-Diarist | Yes | 315 | $13 |
| Subdued-Revenant | No | 235 | $225 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 224 | $9 |
| Quizzical-Hire | Yes | 79 | $3 |
| Monthly-Riding | No | 70 | $67 |
| 0x55332464… | Yes | 62 | $3 |
| Old-Fashioned-Clove | No | 50 | $48 |
| Torn-Shareholder | No | 32 | $31 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:50 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.2% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 12:26 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.2% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 03:15 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.2% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 12:14 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 04:34 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.7% | $299 |
| Oct 20, 02:50 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.1% | $1 |
| Oct 19, 02:44 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.5% | $186 |
| Oct 19, 02:10 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.6% | $0 |
| Oct 17, 08:32 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.0% | $1 |
| Oct 16, 11:49 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.0% | $11 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 4.2%. Next is October 31 at 0.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ren-zhengfei-confirmed-outside-china-byptptpt?via=bro
$7.9K in total volume, with $20 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 4.2% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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