As of October 24, 2026, 07:47 PM ET, Polymarket traders price ↓ 7% at 52.9% in Republican House odds hit __ by October 31? — $238.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, ↓ 7%, is priced at 52.9%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +28.6 pts; past week: +23.1 pts; past month: -19.6 pts.
Since September 22, 2026, ↓ 7% has traded between 20.6% and 94.8%. It opened at 42.0% and last traded at 24.3%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 33.8% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 29.9% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 20.6% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 23.6% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 36.4% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 74.7% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 24.3% |
↓ 7% is favored at 52.9%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 7% | 53¢ | 52.9% | +28.6 pts | $39.1K | 16.4% |
| ↑ 12% | 6¢ | 5.7% | +0.1 pts | $52.2K | 21.9% |
| ↓ 5% | 4¢ | 3.9% | -2.6 pts | $43.2K | 18.1% |
| ↑ 20% | 1¢ | 0.8% | — | $36.4K | 15.3% |
| ↑ 15% | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $57.8K | 24.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 50¢ / ask 56¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$238.0K has been traded on this event in total, $3.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Republican Party's hourly odds value in the "House Control 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com is equal to or below 7% for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph on that option's detail page. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the Republican Party's hourly odds value is above 7% ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for the Republican Party (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for the Republican Party in the "House Control 2026" listing before November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing the Republican Party from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://predictionmarketodds.com/house-control-2026.html
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,452 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rex416 | Yes | 2,452 | $1.3K |
| Accurate-Decoder | Yes | 2,389 | $1.3K |
| Flippant-Speech | No | 2,342 | $1.1K |
| Advanced-Mortgage | No | 1,000 | $470 |
| Experienced-Smell-Railroad | Yes | 739 | $391 |
| Opulent-Right | Yes | 515 | $273 |
| andy29 | No | 503 | $237 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | No | 409 | $192 |
| Attractive-Stamina | No | 340 | $160 |
| Monumental-Banker | No | 327 | $154 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 11:24 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 11:19 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.2% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 11:14 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.2% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 11:11 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.2% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 11:07 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.8% | $47 |
| Oct 24, 10:57 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.8% | $22 |
| Oct 24, 10:52 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.8% | $47 |
| Oct 24, 10:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.2% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 10:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.6% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 10:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.2% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is ↓ 7% at 52.9%. Next is ↑ 12% at 5.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/republican-house-odds-hit-by-october-31?via=bro
$238.0K in total volume, with $3.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://predictionmarketodds.com/house-control-2026.html.
↓ 7%, priced at 52.9% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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