As of October 24, 2026, 08:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price JD Vance at 98.4% in Republican nomination odds leader on October 31? — $8.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, JD Vance, is priced at 98.4%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +1.0 pts; past month: +2.9 pts.
Since September 22, 2026, JD Vance has traded between 55.0% and 98.5%. It opened at 55.0% and last traded at 98.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 97.3% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 97.3% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 97.4% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 96.9% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 97.6% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 98.5% |
JD Vance is favored at 98.4%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 98¢ | 98.4% | — | $5.8K | 64.9% |
| Person A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 1¢ | 0.9% | — | $596 | 6.7% |
| Marco Rubio | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $718 | 8.1% |
| Ron DeSantis | 0¢ | 0.3% | — | $1.2K | 13.3% |
| Tucker Carlson | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $616 | 6.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 97¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$8.9K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 9 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the option with the highest hourly odds value in the "2028 Republican Nomination" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 12:00 PM ET on October 31, 2026. If that option is not a listed outcome of this market, this market will resolve to "Other". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph on that option's detail page. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). If PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes "NO_PRINT" for an option for the specified window, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com has not published anything for the specified window for an option (neither an hourly odds value nor "NO_PRINT"), this market will remain open until a value or "NO_PRINT" for that window is published, and may remain open until November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET for that purpose. If nothing has been published for the specified window by that time, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://predictionmarketodds.com/gop-nomination-2028.html
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,143 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prickly-Signup | Yes | 1,143 | $1.1K |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 628 | $10 |
| Verifiable-Obstacle | Yes | 407 | $401 |
| Mundane-Hood | Yes | 347 | $341 |
| Stale-Cashew | No | 205 | $3 |
| Unselfish-Mineral-Sunday | No | 205 | $3 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 155 | $2 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 134 | $2 |
| Grim-Garage | No | 101 | $2 |
| bakayo33 - 9934 | Yes | 100 | $98 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 12:27 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.2% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 12:20 AM ET | No | SELL | 0.4% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 12:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 0.5% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 12:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 12:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.7% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 12:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 0.5% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 12:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $29 |
| Oct 23, 12:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.7% | $29 |
| Oct 23, 12:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 0.5% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 12:16 AM ET | No | SELL | 0.4% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is JD Vance at 98.4%. Next is Person A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/republican-nomination-odds-leader-on-october-31?via=bro
$8.9K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 9 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://predictionmarketodds.com/gop-nomination-2028.html.
JD Vance, priced at 98.4% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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