As of October 24, 2026, 06:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price ≤47 at 41.5% in Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? — $3.41M traded so far.
The leading outcome, ≤47, is priced at 41.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.0 pts; past week: +2.0 pts; past month: +4.0 pts.
Since December 19, 2025, ≤47 has traded between 5.0% and 43.5%. It opened at 15.0% and last traded at 41.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 38.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 39.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 40.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 39.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 43.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 43.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 41.5% |
≤47 is favored at 41.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤47 | 42¢ | 41.5% | -1.0 pts | $363.9K | 10.7% |
| 48 | 18¢ | 17.5% | — | $129.1K | 3.8% |
| 49 | 12¢ | 11.5% | — | $85.7K | 2.5% |
| 50 | 12¢ | 11.5% | -0.5 pts | $146.5K | 4.3% |
| 51 | 8¢ | 8.5% | — | $247.9K | 7.3% |
| 52 | 5¢ | 5.1% | +0.8 pts | $621.6K | 18.2% |
| 53 | 4¢ | 4.5% | +0.5 pts | $161.0K | 4.7% |
| 54 | 2¢ | 1.8% | -0.5 pts | $817.1K | 23.9% |
| 55 | 1¢ | 1.1% | -0.2 pts | $453.0K | 13.3% |
| 56 | 1¢ | 0.6% | +0.1 pts | $230.8K | 6.8% |
| 57+ | 0¢ | 0.3% | -0.1 pts | $155.5K | 4.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 41¢ / ask 42¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.41M has been traded on this event in total, $11.6K of it in the last 24 hours, across 11 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the United States Senate as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 99,609 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 99,609 | $58.3K |
| Near-Familiar | Yes | 70,884 | $29.4K |
| Perfumed-Appointment | No | 28,256 | $16.5K |
| Barren-Submitter-Analogue | Yes | 26,200 | $10.9K |
| Left-Developmental | No | 15,292 | $8.9K |
| Sane-Dill-Decoration | Yes | 12,834 | $5.3K |
| Wobbly-Pants | No | 11,826 | $6.9K |
| Palatable-Argument | No | 8,432 | $4.9K |
| Agile-Mambo | Yes | 7,997 | $3.3K |
| Snarling-Mile | Yes | 7,435 | $3.1K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:44 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.8% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 06:44 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.3% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 06:44 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.3% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 06:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.7% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 06:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.3% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 06:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.3% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 06:41 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.7% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 06:41 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.3% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 06:41 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.3% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 01:12 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.7% | $10 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is ≤47 at 41.5%. Next is 48 at 17.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/republican-senate-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections-927?via=bro
$3.41M in total volume, with $11.6K traded in the last 24 hours across 11 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
≤47, priced at 41.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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