As of October 24, 2026, 08:22 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 31 at 2.5% in Republicans favored to win the Senate on Nate Silver's Bulletin by...? — $6.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, October 31, is priced at 2.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.6 pts; past week: -2.1 pts; past month: -54.5 pts.
Since August 21, 2026, October 31 has traded between 2.5% and 57.0%. It opened at 51.5% and last traded at 2.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 17.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 3.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 2.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 3.4% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 3.1% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 2.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 2.5% |
October 31 is favored at 2.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 2¢ | 2.5% | -0.6 pts | $3.3K | 51.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$6.5K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point by the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the Silver Bulletin Flipr Forecast of the 2026 Senate election gives Republicans a greater than 50% chance to control the United States Senate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A 50.0% chance shall not be sufficient to resolve this market. The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2026 Flipr Forecast of Senate control, using the "Deluxe" version of the forecast, that can be found at https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the forecast will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If either Silver Bulletin or Flipr rebrand or otherwise change names or urls, this market will resolve based on the clearly-identified successor, should one exist. If Silver Bulletin's "Deluxe" Flipr model becomes permanently unavailable, the "Classic" model will be used.
Resolution source: https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 690 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 690 | $17 |
| Flippant-Speech | No | 480 | $468 |
| Natural-Intensity | No | 271 | $264 |
| Accomplished-Property | No | 265 | $258 |
| Snappy-Rooster | Yes | 200 | $5 |
| Golden-Panpipe | Yes | 80 | $2 |
| Sticky-Supper | No | 46 | $45 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | Yes | 34 | $1 |
| Bumpy-Conscience | No | 33 | $32 |
| Unwitting-Floor | Yes | 26 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 03:23 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.0% | $1 |
| Oct 18, 03:23 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.3% | $0 |
| Oct 17, 10:03 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $16 |
| Oct 17, 05:35 AM ET | No | SELL | 91.0% | $18 |
| Oct 17, 05:33 AM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $18 |
| Oct 17, 04:25 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.0% | $5 |
| Oct 17, 04:25 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.4% | $1 |
| Oct 17, 04:22 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $1 |
| Oct 17, 04:22 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.0% | $1 |
| Oct 17, 03:22 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 31 at 2.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/republicans-favored-to-win-the-senate-on-nate-silvers-bulletin-byptptpt?via=bro
$6.5K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model.
October 31, priced at 2.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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