As of October 24, 2026, 07:59 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Oil ≥ $80; R Senate at 31.3% in Republicans win the Senate pending oil above or below $80? — $47.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Oil ≥ $80; R Senate, is priced at 31.3%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +1.2 pts.
Since October 11, 2026, Oil ≥ $80; R Senate has traded between 29.2% and 35.1%. It opened at 29.5% and last traded at 31.8%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 31.1% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 30.6% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 30.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 29.2% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 35.1% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 34.4% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 31.8% |
Oil ≥ $80; R Senate is favored at 31.3%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil ≥ $80; R Senate | 31¢ | 31.3% | -0.5 pts | $8.5K | 17.9% |
| Oil < $80; R Senate | 1¢ | 0.9% | — | $39.2K | 82.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 30¢ / ask 33¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$47.7K has been traded on this event in total, $921 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if oil is greater than or equal to $80 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Oil price: This market will resolve based on the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (denoted by Pyth as "CLL") for the November 2, 2026 trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market (See: "Trading Hours" at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Futures). … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,220 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taut-Giant | No | 1,220 | $838 |
| Hideous-Racer | Yes | 1,000 | $313 |
| Brown-Screw | Yes | 800 | $250 |
| Scaly-Painter | No | 385 | $265 |
| Sparse-Cookie | No | 235 | $161 |
| Known-Use | No | 167 | $115 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 136 | $43 |
| Dearest-Agenda | No | 100 | $69 |
| Hurtful-Nuke | Yes | 95 | $30 |
| Outstanding-Change | Yes | 89 | $28 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:08 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.9% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 02:28 PM ET | No | SELL | 67.3% | $17 |
| Oct 24, 02:28 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.1% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 02:28 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.1% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 02:28 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.1% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 02:28 PM ET | No | SELL | 67.3% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 02:04 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.1% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:04 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.1% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 02:04 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.1% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:04 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.1% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Oil ≥ $80; R Senate at 31.3%. Next is Oil < $80; R Senate at 0.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/republicans-win-the-senate-pending-oil-above-or-below-80?via=bro
$47.7K in total volume, with $921 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Oil ≥ $80; R Senate, priced at 31.3% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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