As of October 24, 2026, 06:24 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No change at 55.0% in Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December — $16.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No change, is priced at 55.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -13.0 pts; past week: -15.5 pts.
Since October 06, 2026, No change has traded between 55.0% and 81.0%. It opened at 71.5% and last traded at 55.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 70.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 70.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 70.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 70.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 68.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 55.0% |
No change is favored at 55.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 55¢ | 55.0% | -13.0 pts | $7.9K | 49.1% |
| 25 bps increase | 30¢ | 29.5% | -1.0 pts | $5.2K | 32.2% |
| 50+ bps increase | 4¢ | 3.5% | +1.4 pts | $623 | 3.9% |
| 25 bps decrease | 3¢ | 2.7% | +0.8 pts | $611 | 3.8% |
| 50+ bps decrease | 1¢ | 0.6% | +0.4 pts | $1.8K | 11.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 54¢ / ask 56¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$16.1K has been traded on this event in total, $4.4K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 08, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 7 and December 8, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 791 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 791 | $356 |
| Crisp-Scarf | Yes | 285 | $157 |
| Pure-Threat | Yes | 263 | $145 |
| Spicy-Quince | Yes | 230 | $127 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 116 | $64 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 108 | $49 |
| Perfumed-Moat | No | 103 | $46 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 79 | $36 |
| Awesome-Checkbook-Hose | Yes | 60 | $33 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 41 | $23 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:53 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 29.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 05:53 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 29.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 05:52 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 05:52 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 05:52 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 05:52 PM ET | No | SELL | 70.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 05:23 PM ET | No | BUY | 71.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 05:23 PM ET | No | BUY | 72.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 04:42 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 57.2% | $22 |
| Oct 24, 04:42 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 27.9% | $11 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is No change at 55.0%. Next is 25 bps increase at 29.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-australia-decision-in-december-2026?via=bro
$16.1K in total volume, with $4.4K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 08, 2026, 06:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board.
No change, priced at 55.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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