Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December

As of October 24, 2026, 06:24 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No change at 55.0% in Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December — $16.1K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $4.4K.
Leading outcome
No change
55%
A 55.0% price implies roughly a 55-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −13.0 pts7D −15.5 pts
No change55.0%
25 bps increase29.5%
Bid
54¢
Ask
56¢
Spread
2¢
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Range since October 06, 2026: 55.0% – 81.0% · Opened at 71.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December
Category
Aus, RBA, World, Economy, Recurring, Global Rates
Scheduled end
December 08, 2026, 06:59 PM ET
Total volume
$16.1K
Volume (24h)
$4.4K
Liquidity
$10.2K
Markets
5
Leading outcome
No change — 55.0%
Resolution source
https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No change, is priced at 55.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -13.0 pts; past week: -15.5 pts.

Since October 06, 2026, No change has traded between 55.0% and 81.0%. It opened at 71.5% and last traded at 55.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202670.0%
Oct 16, 202670.5%
Oct 18, 202670.5%
Oct 19, 202670.0%
Oct 20, 202671.5%
Oct 23, 202668.0%
Oct 24, 202655.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No change is favored at 55.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No change55¢55.0%-13.0 pts$7.9K49.1%
25 bps increase30¢29.5%-1.0 pts$5.2K32.2%
50+ bps increase4¢3.5%+1.4 pts$6233.9%
25 bps decrease3¢2.7%+0.8 pts$6113.8%
50+ bps decrease1¢0.6%+0.4 pts$1.8K11.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 54¢ / ask 56¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$16.1K has been traded on this event in total, $4.4K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 08, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 7 and December 8, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 791 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No791$356
Crisp-ScarfYes285$157
Pure-ThreatYes263$145
Spicy-QuinceYes230$127
Belated-GlueYes116$64
Gleaming-HandlebarNo108$49
Perfumed-MoatNo103$46
Direct-ChainstayNo79$36
Awesome-Checkbook-HoseYes60$33
Fair-TanYes41$23

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $300 at 52.6%SELL Yes — $125 at 55.2%SELL Yes — $120 at 54.5%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:53 PM ETYesSELL29.0%$0
Oct 24, 05:53 PM ETYesSELL29.0%$0
Oct 24, 05:52 PM ETYesBUY30.0%$6
Oct 24, 05:52 PM ETYesBUY30.0%$6
Oct 24, 05:52 PM ETYesBUY30.0%$6
Oct 24, 05:52 PM ETNoSELL70.0%$14
Oct 24, 05:23 PM ETNoBUY71.0%$14
Oct 24, 05:23 PM ETNoBUY72.0%$14
Oct 24, 04:42 PM ETYesBUY57.2%$22
Oct 24, 04:42 PM ETYesBUY27.9%$11

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is No change at 55.0%. Next is 25 bps increase at 29.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-australia-decision-in-december-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December?

$16.1K in total volume, with $4.4K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.

When does Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December end?

The market is scheduled to end December 08, 2026, 06:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board.

What is the most likely outcome of Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December, according to Polymarket traders?

No change, priced at 55.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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