Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Reserve Bank of India decision in December

As of October 24, 2026, 08:14 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 25 bps increase at 78.0% in Reserve Bank of India decision in December — $18.1K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $75.
Leading outcome
25 bps increase
78%
A 78.0% price implies roughly a 78-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.5 pts7D +3.0 pts
25 bps increase78.0%
No Change14.0%
Bid
77¢
Ask
79¢
Spread
2¢
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Range since October 02, 2026: 41.0% – 79.0% · Opened at 42.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Reserve Bank of India decision in December
Category
RBI, Economy, Recurring, Global Rates, interest rates, Economic Policy
Scheduled end
December 03, 2026, 07:00 PM ET
Total volume
$18.1K
Volume (24h)
$75
Liquidity
$10.1K
Markets
5
Leading outcome
25 bps increase — 78.0%
Resolution source
https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 25 bps increase, is priced at 78.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +3.0 pts.

Since October 02, 2026, 25 bps increase has traded between 41.0% and 79.0%. It opened at 42.5% and last traded at 78.5%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202671.0%
Oct 16, 202675.5%
Oct 18, 202673.0%
Oct 19, 202673.0%
Oct 20, 202675.0%
Oct 22, 202679.0%
Oct 23, 202678.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

25 bps increase is favored at 78.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
25 bps increase78¢78.0%-0.5 pts$4.5K24.9%
No Change14¢14.0%+1.5 pts$11.1K61.3%
50+ bps increase7¢7.0%-0.5 pts$1.1K6.0%
25 bps decrease2¢2.5%—$1.0K5.7%
50+ bps decrease1¢1.0%—$3702.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 77¢ / ask 79¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$18.1K has been traded on this event in total, $75 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 03, 2026, 07:00 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the policy repo rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, with the decision to be announced on December 4, 2026, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of India calendar (https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 725 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No725$160
0x6fa70d26…Yes234$183
Monstrous-DewYes146$114
Bowed-StudYes142$111
Kindhearted-SongbirdYes135$105
Few-PreventionYes125$97
Belated-GlueNo80$18
Fair-TanYes58$45
Gleaming-HandlebarYes57$44
Snappy-RoosterNo44$10

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $981 at 87.5%BUY Yes — $100 at 74.0%BUY Yes — $44 at 74.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 09:08 AM ETYesBUY14.0%$1
Oct 24, 09:07 AM ETYesBUY14.0%$1
Oct 24, 09:07 AM ETYesBUY14.0%$1
Oct 23, 08:16 PM ETYesBUY13.0%$3
Oct 23, 08:11 PM ETYesBUY12.0%$3
Oct 22, 11:59 PM ETYesBUY13.0%$1
Oct 22, 11:38 PM ETYesBUY13.0%$6
Oct 22, 11:36 PM ETYesBUY13.0%$12
Oct 22, 11:20 PM ETYesBUY13.0%$12
Oct 22, 11:18 PM ETYesBUY13.0%$10

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Reserve Bank of India decision in December?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is 25 bps increase at 78.0%. Next is No Change at 14.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-india-decision-in-december-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Reserve Bank of India decision in December?

$18.1K in total volume, with $75 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.

When does Reserve Bank of India decision in December end?

The market is scheduled to end December 03, 2026, 07:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422.

What is the most likely outcome of Reserve Bank of India decision in December, according to Polymarket traders?

25 bps increase, priced at 78.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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