As of October 24, 2026, 08:14 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 25 bps increase at 78.0% in Reserve Bank of India decision in December — $18.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 25 bps increase, is priced at 78.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +3.0 pts.
Since October 02, 2026, 25 bps increase has traded between 41.0% and 79.0%. It opened at 42.5% and last traded at 78.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 71.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 75.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 73.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 73.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 75.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 79.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 78.5% |
25 bps increase is favored at 78.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 bps increase | 78¢ | 78.0% | -0.5 pts | $4.5K | 24.9% |
| No Change | 14¢ | 14.0% | +1.5 pts | $11.1K | 61.3% |
| 50+ bps increase | 7¢ | 7.0% | -0.5 pts | $1.1K | 6.0% |
| 25 bps decrease | 2¢ | 2.5% | — | $1.0K | 5.7% |
| 50+ bps decrease | 1¢ | 1.0% | — | $370 | 2.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 77¢ / ask 79¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$18.1K has been traded on this event in total, $75 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 03, 2026, 07:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the policy repo rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, with the decision to be announced on December 4, 2026, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of India calendar (https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 725 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 725 | $160 |
| 0x6fa70d26… | Yes | 234 | $183 |
| Monstrous-Dew | Yes | 146 | $114 |
| Bowed-Stud | Yes | 142 | $111 |
| Kindhearted-Songbird | Yes | 135 | $105 |
| Few-Prevention | Yes | 125 | $97 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 80 | $18 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 58 | $45 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | Yes | 57 | $44 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 44 | $10 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 09:08 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 09:07 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 09:07 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 08:16 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 08:11 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $3 |
| Oct 22, 11:59 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 11:38 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $6 |
| Oct 22, 11:36 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $12 |
| Oct 22, 11:20 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $12 |
| Oct 22, 11:18 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $10 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is 25 bps increase at 78.0%. Next is No Change at 14.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-india-decision-in-december-2026?via=bro
$18.1K in total volume, with $75 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 03, 2026, 07:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422.
25 bps increase, priced at 78.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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