Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:32 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 25 bps increase at 52.0% in Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December? — $44.7K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $923.
Leading outcome
25 bps increase
52%
A 52.0% price implies roughly a 52-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.5 pts7D −2.5 pts30D +7.5 pts
25 bps increase52.0%
No change38.5%
Bid
51¢
Ask
53¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 09, 2026: 40.0% – 86.0% · Opened at 73.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?
Category
RBNZ, World, Economy, Politics, New Zealand, Global Rates, Economic Policy, Recurring
Scheduled end
December 08, 2026, 07:00 PM ET
Total volume
$44.7K
Volume (24h)
$923
Liquidity
$2.8K
Markets
5
Leading outcome
25 bps increase — 52.0%
Resolution source
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 25 bps increase, is priced at 52.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -2.5 pts; past month: +7.5 pts.

Since September 09, 2026, 25 bps increase has traded between 40.0% and 86.0%. It opened at 73.5% and last traded at 52.0%.

DayClose
Oct 13, 202657.5%
Oct 15, 202660.5%
Oct 16, 202654.5%
Oct 18, 202654.5%
Oct 19, 202645.5%
Oct 20, 202653.5%
Oct 24, 202652.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

25 bps increase is favored at 52.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
25 bps increase52¢52.0%-0.5 pts$21.4K47.9%
No change38¢38.5%—$13.7K30.8%
50+ bps increase6¢5.7%+2.2 pts$3.2K7.2%
50+ bps decrease2¢1.6%+0.1 pts$3.1K6.9%
25 bps decrease1¢0.6%—$3.2K7.2%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 51¢ / ask 53¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$44.7K has been traded on this event in total, $923 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 08, 2026, 07:00 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,249 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No2,249$1.1K
Crisp-ScarfYes414$215
0xd0d90cd5…Yes355$185
Fair-TanYes289$150
Dangerous-Fairness-AttentionYes217$113
Belated-GlueYes211$110
Awesome-AvailabilityYes200$104
0x3a9dad53…Yes172$89
Pretty-MotherYes155$81
Clear-Cut-TunaYes140$73

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL Yes — $139 at 55.6%SELL Yes — $88 at 38.7%BUY Yes — $44 at 55.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 11:50 AM ETNoBUY55.0%$11
Oct 24, 11:50 AM ETYesBUY38.0%$8
Oct 24, 11:48 AM ETYesBUY38.0%$8
Oct 24, 11:48 AM ETYesBUY37.0%$26
Oct 24, 11:44 AM ETNoBUY47.0%$9
Oct 24, 11:28 AM ETYesSELL35.0%$7
Oct 24, 11:05 AM ETYesSELL35.0%$0
Oct 24, 10:57 AM ETYesSELL38.7%$88
Oct 24, 10:57 AM ETNoBUY64.6%$16
Oct 24, 10:57 AM ETNoBUY63.0%$14

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 25 bps increase at 52.0%. Next is No change at 38.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-decision-in-december-20260908230600001?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December??

$44.7K in total volume, with $923 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.

When does Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 08, 2026, 07:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events.

What is the most likely outcome of Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?, according to Polymarket traders?

25 bps increase, priced at 52.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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