As of October 24, 2026, 08:07 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 79.5% in RFK Jr. Out by December 31? — $25.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 79.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +4.0 pts; past week: +8.5 pts; past month: +7.0 pts.
Since March 19, 2026, No has traded between 39.0% and 88.5%. It opened at 73.0% and last traded at 84.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 87.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 80.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 84.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 84.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 84.5% |
No is favored at 79.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 80¢ | 79.5% | -4.0 pts | $25.5K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 20¢ | 20.5% | +4.0 pts | $25.5K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 19¢ (bid 11¢ / ask 30¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$25.5K has been traded on this event in total, $6 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) ceases to be United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,738 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Punctual-Sand | No | 2,738 | $2.2K |
| Hasty-Chain | Yes | 1,844 | $378 |
| Worse-Scenario | Yes | 919 | $188 |
| Pricey-Wrap | Yes | 677 | $139 |
| Fantastic-Refrigerator | No | 660 | $525 |
| Sane-Sprout | Yes | 482 | $99 |
| Crafty-Greens | No | 411 | $327 |
| Hideous-Racer | No | 382 | $303 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 243 | $50 |
| Chubby-Prior | No | 215 | $171 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:07 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 17.0% | $1 |
| Oct 19, 03:43 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $6 |
| Oct 18, 02:27 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $4 |
| Oct 16, 10:42 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $4 |
| Oct 05, 05:40 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $4 |
| Oct 05, 01:40 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $6 |
| Oct 03, 05:16 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.0% | $3 |
| Oct 02, 02:52 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $2 |
| Oct 02, 12:57 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 13.0% | $2 |
| Oct 01, 04:29 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 13.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 79.5%. Next is Yes at 20.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/rfk-jr-out-by-december-31-524?via=bro
$25.5K in total volume, with $6 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 79.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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