As of October 24, 2026, 07:43 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Elon Musk at 97.5% in Richest person on December 31, 2026? — $1.95M traded so far.
The leading outcome, Elon Musk, is priced at 97.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.1 pts; past week: +0.4 pts; past month: +0.4 pts.
Since November 12, 2025, Elon Musk has traded between 67.5% and 97.8%. It opened at 82.5% and last traded at 97.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 97.1% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 97.4% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 97.5% |
Elon Musk is favored at 97.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elon Musk | 97¢ | 97.5% | +0.1 pts | $199.0K | 10.2% |
| Warren Buffett | 1¢ | 0.8% | — | $93.6K | 4.8% |
| Bernard Arnault | 0¢ | 0.5% | -0.2 pts | $370.7K | 19.0% |
| Jeff Bezos | 0¢ | 0.3% | — | $348.7K | 17.8% |
| Larry Ellison | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $63.1K | 3.2% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $134.2K | 6.9% |
| Jensen Huang | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $181.7K | 9.3% |
| Steve Ballmer | 0¢ | 0.2% | -0.1 pts | $314.7K | 16.1% |
| Larry Page | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $156.4K | 8.0% |
| Sergey Brin | 0¢ | 0.2% | -0.1 pts | $89.8K | 4.6% |
| Michael Dell | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.4K | 0.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 97¢ / ask 98¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.95M has been traded on this event in total, $1.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 37 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 02, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Resolution source: https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 14,021 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 14,021 | $358 |
| Colorful-Maize | Yes | 5,797 | $5.6K |
| Soggy-Brilliant | Yes | 5,000 | $4.9K |
| Qualified-Hypothermia | No | 4,531 | $116 |
| Stimulating-Power | Yes | 2,058 | $2.0K |
| Relieved-End | Yes | 1,742 | $1.7K |
| Ignorant-Racing | Yes | 1,154 | $1.1K |
| Political-Trachoma | Yes | 1,074 | $1.0K |
| Punctual-Sand | Yes | 939 | $915 |
| Evil-Row | No | 657 | $17 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:49 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.3% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 04:47 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.3% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 04:03 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.4% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 12:42 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.2% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 12:17 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.2% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 12:10 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.5% | $46 |
| Oct 23, 12:03 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.9% | $297 |
| Oct 23, 12:03 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $14 |
| Oct 23, 12:03 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $20 |
| Oct 23, 12:03 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $14 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Elon Musk at 97.5%. Next is Warren Buffett at 0.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/richest-person-on-december-31-2026?via=bro
$1.95M in total volume, with $1.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 37 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 02, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/.
Elon Musk, priced at 97.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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