Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Rivian (RIVN) beat quarterly earnings?

As of October 24, 2026, 09:16 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 77.1% in Will Rivian (RIVN) beat quarterly earnings? — $487 traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $10.
Leading outcome
No
77%
A 77.1% price implies roughly a 77-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −6.2 pts7D +2.3 pts
No77.1%
Yes22.9%
Bid
18¢
Ask
28¢
Spread
10¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 16, 2026: 25.0% – 79.2% · Opened at 25.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Rivian (RIVN) beat quarterly earnings?
Category
Finance, Earnings, Hide From New, Equities, RIVN
Scheduled end
October 29, 2026, 05:00 PM ET
Total volume
$487
Volume (24h)
$10
Liquidity
$620
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 77.1%
Resolution source
https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RIVN/earnings

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 77.1%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -6.2 pts; past week: +2.3 pts.

Since October 16, 2026, No has traded between 25.0% and 79.2%. It opened at 25.0% and last traded at 71.0%.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 77.1%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No77¢77.1%+6.2 pts$487100.0%
Yes23¢22.9%-6.2 pts$487100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 10¢ (bid 18¢ / ask 28¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$487 has been traded on this event in total, $10 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 29, 2026, 05:00 PM ET.

As of market creation, Rivian is estimated to release earnings on October 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Rivian's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-0.64 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rivian reports GAAP EPS greater than $-0.64 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Rivian releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RIVN/earnings

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 197 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Awesome-AvailabilityNo197$152
Quizzical-HireYes55$13
Prudent-WheelYes30$7
Amazing-Antelope-ShakedownYes22$5
Apt-AntecedentYes20$5
nickpickYes20$5
Rowdy-TenementYes20$5
Sunny-SmokingYes20$5
Skeletal-LiverYes20$5
Absolute-Cockpit-DungareesNo10$8

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $72 at 27.5%SELL No — $64 at 98.4%BUY No — $16 at 81.8%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 10:32 AM ETNoBUY74.0%$7
Oct 23, 05:59 PM ETYesBUY19.1%$6
Oct 23, 04:46 PM ETYesSELL22.0%$4
Oct 23, 04:15 AM ETNoSELL67.3%$0
Oct 23, 04:15 AM ETNoBUY75.2%$15
Oct 23, 04:15 AM ETNoBUY74.8%$15
Oct 23, 04:15 AM ETYesSELL25.2%$5
Oct 20, 06:00 AM ETNoBUY81.8%$16
Oct 17, 12:40 PM ETYesSELL18.8%$4
Oct 17, 03:54 AM ETNoSELL98.4%$64

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Rivian (RIVN) beat quarterly earnings??

As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 77.1%. Next is Yes at 22.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/rivn-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-10-29-2026-neg0pt64?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Rivian (RIVN) beat quarterly earnings??

$487 in total volume, with $10 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Will Rivian (RIVN) beat quarterly earnings? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 29, 2026, 05:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RIVN/earnings.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Rivian (RIVN) beat quarterly earnings?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 77.1% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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