As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 95.5% in Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31? — $12.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 95.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.1 pts; past week: +2.5 pts; past month: -4.0 pts.
Since April 30, 2026, No has traded between 41.5% and 98.0%. It opened at 52.5% and last traded at 95.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 98.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 98.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 96.9% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 96.8% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.5% |
No is favored at 95.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 96¢ | 95.5% | +0.1 pts | $12.4K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 4¢ | 4.5% | -0.1 pts | $12.4K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 7¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$12.4K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Rocket Lab (https://www.youtube.com/@RocketLabCorp), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of the Neutron vehicle will have no bearing on the market’s resolution.
Resolution source: https://www.youtube.com/@RocketLabCorp
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,646 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Serpentine-League | No | 3,646 | $3.5K |
| Useful-Skating | Yes | 2,383 | $106 |
| Unlawful-Somewhere | Yes | 739 | $33 |
| Tangible-Fuel | Yes | 278 | $12 |
| Snappy-Rooster | Yes | 272 | $12 |
| Past-Punishment | No | 227 | $217 |
| Sunny-Coverage | No | 208 | $199 |
| Euphoric-Flan | No | 153 | $146 |
| Worldly-Dump | Yes | 125 | $6 |
| Imaginative-Shoes | Yes | 105 | $5 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 04:00 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.5% | $67 |
| Oct 14, 05:03 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 14, 05:03 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.0% | $3 |
| Oct 14, 05:02 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $2 |
| Oct 14, 05:02 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $1 |
| Oct 14, 05:02 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $4 |
| Oct 14, 05:02 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $1 |
| Oct 14, 05:02 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $1 |
| Oct 14, 05:02 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $11 |
| Oct 14, 05:02 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $23 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 95.5%. Next is Yes at 4.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/rocket-labs-neutron-rocket-launch-by-december-31-691?via=bro
$12.4K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.youtube.com/@RocketLabCorp.
No, priced at 95.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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