As of October 24, 2026, 06:35 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 98.5% in Rubio flips Vance for GOP nomination by October 31? — $7.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 98.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.3 pts; past month: -0.9 pts.
Since September 22, 2026, No has traded between 97.0% and 99.0%. It opened at 97.0% and last traded at 98.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 98.3% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 98.4% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 98.4% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 98.4% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 98.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 98.5% |
No is favored at 98.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 98¢ | 98.5% | — | $7.2K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 2¢ | 1.6% | — | $7.2K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 0¢ / ask 3¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$7.2K has been traded on this event in total, $626 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Marco Rubio's hourly odds value is higher than JD Vance's hourly odds value in the "2028 Republican Nomination" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as Marco Rubio being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Marco Rubio or JD Vance in the "2028 Republican Nomination" listing before November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://predictionmarketodds.com/gop-nomination-2028.html
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 623 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Near-Familiar | No | 623 | $613 |
| Downright-Website | No | 541 | $533 |
| Grumpy-Urn | No | 368 | $363 |
| 0xe3aeb10c… | Yes | 309 | $5 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 251 | $4 |
| 0xfbfd14dd4bb607373119de95f1d4b21c3b6c0029 | No | 200 | $197 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 191 | $3 |
| Optimistic-Causal | Yes | 154 | $2 |
| Unselfish-Mineral-Sunday | Yes | 150 | $2 |
| Twin-Worship | Yes | 150 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 08:22 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.4% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 01:12 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.5% | $0 |
| Oct 19, 10:49 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.4% | $40 |
| Oct 16, 02:34 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.1% | $2 |
| Oct 16, 02:40 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.4% | $2 |
| Oct 14, 12:12 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.8% | $0 |
| Oct 13, 03:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.5% | $5 |
| Oct 12, 07:07 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.3% | $0 |
| Oct 12, 05:51 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.5% | $1 |
| Oct 11, 09:09 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.7% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 98.5%. Next is Yes at 1.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/rubio-flips-vance-for-gop-nomination-by-october-31?via=bro
$7.2K in total volume, with $626 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://predictionmarketodds.com/gop-nomination-2028.html.
No, priced at 98.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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