As of October 24, 2026, 08:12 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 2.1% in Plague declared public health emergency by...? — $21.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 2.1%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -1.1 pts.
Since October 05, 2026, December 31 has traded between 2.1% and 18.5%. It opened at 18.5% and last traded at 2.1%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 4.7% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 4.6% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 3.4% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 2.4% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 2.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 2.1% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 2.1% |
December 31 is favored at 2.1%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 2¢ | 2.1% | — | $8.5K | 39.8% |
| November 30 | 2¢ | 1.6% | — | $12.9K | 60.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 2¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$21.4K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization officially declares a Public Health Emergency of International Concern covering plague, Yersinia pestis, pneumonic plague, or any plague outbreak between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only a determination that constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern under the International Health Regulations will qualify. Other designations will not be considered, including the convening of an Emergency Committee, a Disease Outbreak News publication, a grade assigned under the WHO Emergency Response Framework, and a characterization of the outbreak as a pandemic. A Public Health Emergency of International Concern already in effect at market creation does not qualify; the declaration must occur between market creation and the specified date. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 859 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shimmering-Reindeer | No | 859 | $841 |
| Idle-Soldier | Yes | 715 | $15 |
| Immense-Businessman | No | 500 | $489 |
| Cheerful-Ephemera | No | 450 | $440 |
| Possible-Shack | Yes | 319 | $7 |
| Esteemed-Fibrosis | Yes | 300 | $6 |
| Quarterly-Pencil | Yes | 255 | $5 |
| Failing-Hypothermia | No | 210 | $205 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | Yes | 202 | $4 |
| Livid-Machinery | Yes | 200 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 02:24 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.7% | $7 |
| Oct 23, 09:19 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.1% | $212 |
| Oct 23, 09:17 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.6% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 07:54 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.5% | $296 |
| Oct 22, 09:00 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.2% | $8 |
| Oct 22, 02:27 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.4% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 12:43 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.3% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 12:42 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.6% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 11:40 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.7% | $20 |
| Oct 18, 01:59 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.4% | $32 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 2.1%. Next is November 30 at 1.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/russia-pneumonic-plague-declared-public-health-emergency-byptptpt?via=bro
$21.4K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 2.1% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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