As of October 24, 2026, 07:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 96.0% in Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo — $643.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 96.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.1 pts; past week: +0.3 pts; past month: +1.1 pts.
Since November 24, 2025, No has traded between 64.5% and 98.0%. It opened at 81.5% and last traded at 96.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 96.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 96.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 96.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 96.7% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 96.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 96.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 96.0% |
No is favored at 96.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 96¢ | 96.0% | +0.1 pts | $643.8K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 4¢ | 4.0% | -0.1 pts | $643.8K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$643.8K has been traded on this event in total, $238 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Russia x Ukraine ceasefire - Ukraine agrees not to join NATO - Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 80,860 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vigilant-Railing | No | 80,860 | $77.7K |
| Half-Magazine | Yes | 39,983 | $1.6K |
| Bowed-Honoree | Yes | 32,128 | $1.3K |
| Moral-Lab | No | 18,401 | $17.7K |
| Zbinik | No | 16,827 | $16.2K |
| izuwideshut | Yes | 15,094 | $596 |
| Alarmed-Eyeball | Yes | 11,712 | $463 |
| Brisk-Ephyra | No | 10,700 | $10.3K |
| Weekly-Mat | Yes | 8,118 | $321 |
| Cool-Copywriter | Yes | 7,882 | $311 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 09:29 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.7% | $93 |
| Oct 24, 08:19 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.3% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:28 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.3% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 02:00 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.3% | $20 |
| Oct 23, 10:47 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.2% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 06:28 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.7% | $68 |
| Oct 21, 05:07 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.2% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 11:49 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.4% | $20 |
| Oct 21, 10:57 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.4% | $10 |
| Oct 20, 02:30 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.4% | $10 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 96.0%. Next is Yes at 4.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-peace-parlay?via=bro
$643.8K in total volume, with $238 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 96.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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