As of October 24, 2026, 06:55 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 79.5% in Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...? — $2.05M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 79.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -3.0 pts; past week: +49.0 pts; past month: +11.0 pts.
Since June 18, 2026, December 31 has traded between 30.5% and 83.0%. It opened at 73.5% and last traded at 83.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 34.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 32.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 40.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 50.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 73.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 83.0% |
December 31 is favored at 79.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 80¢ | 79.5% | -3.0 pts | $478.8K | 23.4% |
| November 30 | 70¢ | 70.0% | -5.0 pts | $487.7K | 23.8% |
| October 31 | 4¢ | 4.5% | -1.0 pts | $483.1K | 23.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 78¢ / ask 81¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.05M has been traded on this event in total, $22.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 6,447 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Equal-Brass | Yes | 6,447 | $5.1K |
| Joint-Washbasin | Yes | 5,903 | $4.7K |
| Angry-Evaluation | Yes | 5,693 | $4.5K |
| Glistening-Contributor | No | 5,399 | $1.1K |
| Elated-Massage | No | 5,022 | $1.0K |
| Bulky-Antler | No | 4,474 | $917 |
| Hateful-Generation | Yes | 3,750 | $3.0K |
| Clumsy-Laundry-Trigonometry | Yes | 3,322 | $2.6K |
| Punctual-Breadcrumb-Experience | No | 3,214 | $659 |
| Numb-Commotion | Yes | 3,000 | $2.4K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:52 PM ET | No | BUY | 22.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 06:52 PM ET | No | SELL | 20.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 06:52 PM ET | No | SELL | 19.0% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 06:52 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 80.6% | $1,000 |
| Oct 24, 06:52 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 82.0% | $17 |
| Oct 24, 06:48 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.3% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 06:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.7% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 06:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.6% | $200 |
| Oct 24, 06:15 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.6% | $120 |
| Oct 24, 05:34 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.7% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 79.5%. Next is November 30 at 70.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-peace-talks-byptptpt-20260609012540716?via=bro
$2.05M in total volume, with $22.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 79.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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