Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:55 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 79.5% in Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...? — $2.05M traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $22.2K.
Leading outcome
December 31
80%
A 79.5% price implies roughly a 80-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −3.0 pts7D +49.0 pts30D +11.0 pts
December 3179.5%
November 3070.0%
Bid
78¢
Ask
81¢
Spread
3¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since June 18, 2026: 30.5% – 83.0% · Opened at 73.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
Category
putin, Russia, Ukraine, Politics, zelensky, zelenskyy, Geopolitics
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET
Total volume
$2.05M
Volume (24h)
$22.2K
Liquidity
$93.6K
Markets
3
Leading outcome
December 31 — 79.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 79.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -3.0 pts; past week: +49.0 pts; past month: +11.0 pts.

Since June 18, 2026, December 31 has traded between 30.5% and 83.0%. It opened at 73.5% and last traded at 83.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202634.5%
Oct 17, 202630.5%
Oct 18, 202632.5%
Oct 19, 202640.5%
Oct 20, 202650.5%
Oct 22, 202673.0%
Oct 23, 202683.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 79.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3180¢79.5%-3.0 pts$478.8K23.4%
November 3070¢70.0%-5.0 pts$487.7K23.8%
October 314¢4.5%-1.0 pts$483.1K23.6%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 78¢ / ask 81¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$2.05M has been traded on this event in total, $22.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 6,447 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Equal-BrassYes6,447$5.1K
Joint-WashbasinYes5,903$4.7K
Angry-EvaluationYes5,693$4.5K
Glistening-ContributorNo5,399$1.1K
Elated-MassageNo5,022$1.0K
Bulky-AntlerNo4,474$917
Hateful-GenerationYes3,750$3.0K
Clumsy-Laundry-TrigonometryYes3,322$2.6K
Punctual-Breadcrumb-ExperienceNo3,214$659
Numb-CommotionYes3,000$2.4K

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL Yes — $2.1K at 81.0%SELL Yes — $2.1K at 74.0%SELL Yes — $1.2K at 81.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 06:52 PM ETNoBUY22.0%$2
Oct 24, 06:52 PM ETNoSELL20.0%$5
Oct 24, 06:52 PM ETNoSELL19.0%$12
Oct 24, 06:52 PM ETYesBUY80.6%$1,000
Oct 24, 06:52 PM ETYesBUY82.0%$17
Oct 24, 06:48 PM ETYesSELL4.3%$3
Oct 24, 06:42 PM ETNoBUY95.7%$18
Oct 24, 06:42 PM ETNoBUY95.6%$200
Oct 24, 06:15 PM ETNoBUY95.6%$120
Oct 24, 05:34 PM ETYesBUY4.7%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 79.5%. Next is November 30 at 70.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-peace-talks-byptptpt-20260609012540716?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...??

$2.05M in total volume, with $22.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.

When does Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 79.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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