As of October 24, 2026, 08:01 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 96.0% in Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? — $40.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 96.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.2 pts; past month: -0.4 pts.
Since April 21, 2026, No has traded between 80.5% and 96.5%. It opened at 89.5% and last traded at 96.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 95.7% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 95.8% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 95.9% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 95.9% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 96.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 96.0% |
No is favored at 96.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 96¢ | 96.0% | — | $40.5K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 4¢ | 4.0% | — | $40.5K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 5¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$40.5K has been traded on this event in total, $385 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sanae Takaichi ceases to be Prime Minister of Japan for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Takaichi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Sanae Takaichi and the government of Japan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,562 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attached-Example-Anesthesiologist | No | 3,562 | $3.4K |
| Small-Bobcat | Yes | 2,839 | $115 |
| Illiterate-Holder | Yes | 1,960 | $79 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Hemisphere | Yes | 1,895 | $77 |
| Dry-Euphonium | Yes | 1,838 | $74 |
| Flashy-Label | No | 1,589 | $1.5K |
| First-Sphere | No | 1,500 | $1.4K |
| French-Dungeon | Yes | 1,236 | $50 |
| 0xe617861a… | No | 1,051 | $1.0K |
| Far-Flung-Transom | No | 992 | $951 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:27 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.5% | $13 |
| Oct 22, 08:37 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.3% | $87 |
| Oct 21, 12:57 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.4% | $9 |
| Oct 20, 11:54 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.4% | $16 |
| Oct 20, 11:34 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.4% | $7 |
| Oct 20, 05:14 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.4% | $10 |
| Oct 20, 12:04 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.4% | $10 |
| Oct 19, 11:55 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.4% | $10 |
| Oct 19, 10:14 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.4% | $4 |
| Oct 19, 09:58 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.3% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 96.0%. Next is Yes at 4.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/sanae-takaichi-out-as-prime-minister-of-japan-in-2026?via=bro
$40.5K in total volume, with $385 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 96.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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