As of October 24, 2026, 07:43 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 2.5% in Satoshi's identity be proven by...? — $2.00M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 2.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.5 pts; past month: +0.2 pts.
Since April 17, 2026, December 31 has traded between 1.8% and 10.0%. It opened at 5.5% and last traded at 2.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 1.9% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 1.9% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 2.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 2.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 2.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 2.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 2.5% |
December 31 is favored at 2.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 3¢ | 2.5% | — | $938.5K | 46.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 3¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.00M has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,574 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Admired-Omission | Yes | 3,574 | $91 |
| Worthless-Summer | Yes | 1,402 | $36 |
| Lopsided-Daybed | No | 1,041 | $1.0K |
| Rundown-Schoolhouse | No | 967 | $943 |
| 0x8931aa50… | No | 469 | $457 |
| 0xfa394a59… | Yes | 459 | $12 |
| Far-Flung-Transom | No | 408 | $397 |
| Blushing-Yin | Yes | 326 | $8 |
| Straight-Hunting | Yes | 300 | $8 |
| Pleasing-Elm | Yes | 266 | $7 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 09:37 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.5% | $8 |
| Oct 14, 02:09 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.8% | $1 |
| Oct 14, 02:38 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.8% | $5 |
| Oct 14, 12:31 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.6% | $164 |
| Oct 10, 06:16 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.9% | $1 |
| Oct 08, 04:12 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.1% | $101 |
| Oct 08, 08:25 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.0% | $2 |
| Sep 30, 06:14 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.0% | $100 |
| Sep 30, 05:55 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.4% | $1 |
| Sep 21, 08:51 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.3% | $49 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 2.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/satoshis-identity-be-proven-by?via=bro
$2.00M in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 2.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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