As of October 24, 2026, 06:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 19.5% in Saudi airspace closed by...? — $425.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 19.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: +3.0 pts; past month: -3.0 pts.
Since September 20, 2026, December 31 has traded between 13.0% and 22.5%. It opened at 22.5% and last traded at 19.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 16.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 16.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 16.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 16.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 16.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 18.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 19.5% |
December 31 is favored at 19.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 20¢ | 19.5% | +1.0 pts | $150.4K | 35.3% |
| October 31 | 4¢ | 3.5% | -0.3 pts | $270.2K | 63.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 18¢ / ask 21¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$425.7K has been traded on this event in total, $35.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabian Airspace (The Jeddah Flight Information Region (FIR)/OEJD) is closed between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,785 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hideous-Racer | No | 2,785 | $2.2K |
| Haunting-Rubric | No | 1,784 | $1.4K |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 1,617 | $315 |
| Unknown-Aid | No | 1,538 | $1.2K |
| Fearful-Congress | Yes | 798 | $156 |
| Few-Prevention | Yes | 636 | $124 |
| Tough-Conscience | Yes | 623 | $122 |
| Small-Blowhole | No | 500 | $402 |
| Sarcastic-Door | Yes | 499 | $97 |
| Queasy-Airship | No | 498 | $401 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:36 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 06:36 PM ET | No | SELL | 80.5% | $78 |
| Oct 24, 05:25 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.3% | $48 |
| Oct 24, 05:01 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.3% | $2.0K |
| Oct 24, 04:57 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 04:54 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.9% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 04:52 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 04:52 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 19.0% | $69 |
| Oct 24, 04:39 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 23.8% | $56 |
| Oct 24, 04:27 PM ET | No | SELL | 77.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 19.5%. Next is October 31 at 3.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-airspace-closed-byptptpt?via=bro
$425.7K in total volume, with $35.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 19.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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