Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Saudi airspace closed by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 19.5% in Saudi airspace closed by...? — $425.7K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $35.2K.
Leading outcome
December 31
20%
A 19.5% price implies roughly a 20-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +1.0 pts7D +3.0 pts30D −3.0 pts
December 3119.5%
October 313.5%
Bid
18¢
Ask
21¢
Spread
3¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 20, 2026: 13.0% – 22.5% · Opened at 22.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Saudi airspace closed by...?
Category
Iran, Politics, Geopolitics, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Yemen
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$425.7K
Volume (24h)
$35.2K
Liquidity
$56.1K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
December 31 — 19.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 19.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: +3.0 pts; past month: -3.0 pts.

Since September 20, 2026, December 31 has traded between 13.0% and 22.5%. It opened at 22.5% and last traded at 19.5%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202616.5%
Oct 16, 202616.5%
Oct 18, 202616.5%
Oct 19, 202616.5%
Oct 20, 202616.5%
Oct 23, 202618.5%
Oct 24, 202619.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 19.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3120¢19.5%+1.0 pts$150.4K35.3%
October 314¢3.5%-0.3 pts$270.2K63.4%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 18¢ / ask 21¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$425.7K has been traded on this event in total, $35.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabian Airspace (The Jeddah Flight Information Region (FIR)/OEJD) is closed between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,785 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Hideous-RacerNo2,785$2.2K
Haunting-RubricNo1,784$1.4K
Flamboyant-WarmingYes1,617$315
Unknown-AidNo1,538$1.2K
Fearful-CongressYes798$156
Few-PreventionYes636$124
Tough-ConscienceYes623$122
Small-BlowholeNo500$402
Sarcastic-DoorYes499$97
Queasy-AirshipNo498$401

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $2.0K at 96.3%BUY No — $1.2K at 97.0%BUY Yes — $789 at 19.3%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 06:36 PM ETYesBUY21.0%$11
Oct 24, 06:36 PM ETNoSELL80.5%$78
Oct 24, 05:25 PM ETNoSELL96.3%$48
Oct 24, 05:01 PM ETNoBUY96.3%$2.0K
Oct 24, 04:57 PM ETYesBUY19.0%$3
Oct 24, 04:54 PM ETYesBUY3.9%$2
Oct 24, 04:52 PM ETYesBUY19.0%$3
Oct 24, 04:52 PM ETYesSELL19.0%$69
Oct 24, 04:39 PM ETYesSELL23.8%$56
Oct 24, 04:27 PM ETNoSELL77.0%$0

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Saudi airspace closed by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 19.5%. Next is October 31 at 3.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-airspace-closed-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Saudi airspace closed by...??

$425.7K in total volume, with $35.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Saudi airspace closed by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Saudi airspace closed by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 19.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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