Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:21 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 18.0% in Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by...? — $7.3K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $139.
Leading outcome
December 31
18%
A 18.0% price implies roughly a 18-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D +3.5 pts30D −2.5 pts
December 3118.0%
October 315.0%
Bid
17¢
Ask
19¢
Spread
2¢
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Range since September 17, 2026: 6.5% – 24.5% · Opened at 17.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by...?
Category
Iran, Military, Geopolitics, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Military Actions, Military Strikes, Yemen, Houthis
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 03:29 PM ET
Total volume
$7.3K
Volume (24h)
$139
Liquidity
$23.3K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
December 31 — 18.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 18.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: +3.5 pts; past month: -2.5 pts.

Since September 17, 2026, December 31 has traded between 6.5% and 24.5%. It opened at 17.0% and last traded at 18.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202615.5%
Oct 16, 202615.0%
Oct 18, 202615.0%
Oct 19, 202615.0%
Oct 20, 202615.5%
Oct 23, 202618.0%
Oct 24, 202618.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 18.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3118¢18.0%—$3.9K53.3%
October 315¢5.0%+0.7 pts$2.1K29.3%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 17¢ / ask 19¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$7.3K has been traded on this event in total, $139 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 03:29 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Saudi Arabia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of Saudi Arabia directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 651 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Silent-ObsidianNo651$534
Impartial-RhetoricYes510$92
Plush-PonyYes466$84
Polished-ForayYes400$72
Antique-FrameNo271$223
Pleasing-DeckYes211$38
Dark-SpectacleNo128$105
Grumpy-UrnNo120$98
Unlined-MarshmallowNo100$82
Bitter-CartoonNo82$67

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $114 at 96.5%BUY No — $96 at 81.0%BUY No — $96 at 92.9%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 10:53 AM ETNoSELL81.0%$22
Oct 24, 10:53 AM ETNoSELL81.0%$90
Oct 23, 06:12 PM ETNoBUY83.0%$16
Oct 23, 06:11 PM ETNoBUY82.0%$26
Oct 23, 05:16 AM ETNoSELL82.0%$16
Oct 23, 03:06 AM ETNoSELL82.0%$23
Oct 23, 01:38 AM ETYesBUY19.0%$40
Oct 22, 10:24 PM ETNoSELL81.0%$45
Oct 22, 03:43 PM ETNoBUY82.0%$20
Oct 22, 12:30 PM ETNoSELL79.0%$4

Related markets

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 18.0%. Next is October 31 at 5.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-arabia-military-action-against-iran-by-20260916?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by...??

$7.3K in total volume, with $139 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 03:29 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 18.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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