As of October 24, 2026, 08:21 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 18.0% in Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by...? — $7.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 18.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +3.5 pts; past month: -2.5 pts.
Since September 17, 2026, December 31 has traded between 6.5% and 24.5%. It opened at 17.0% and last traded at 18.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 15.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 15.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 15.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 15.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 15.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 18.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 18.0% |
December 31 is favored at 18.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 18¢ | 18.0% | — | $3.9K | 53.3% |
| October 31 | 5¢ | 5.0% | +0.7 pts | $2.1K | 29.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 17¢ / ask 19¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$7.3K has been traded on this event in total, $139 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 03:29 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Saudi Arabia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of Saudi Arabia directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 651 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Silent-Obsidian | No | 651 | $534 |
| Impartial-Rhetoric | Yes | 510 | $92 |
| Plush-Pony | Yes | 466 | $84 |
| Polished-Foray | Yes | 400 | $72 |
| Antique-Frame | No | 271 | $223 |
| Pleasing-Deck | Yes | 211 | $38 |
| Dark-Spectacle | No | 128 | $105 |
| Grumpy-Urn | No | 120 | $98 |
| Unlined-Marshmallow | No | 100 | $82 |
| Bitter-Cartoon | No | 82 | $67 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 10:53 AM ET | No | SELL | 81.0% | $22 |
| Oct 24, 10:53 AM ET | No | SELL | 81.0% | $90 |
| Oct 23, 06:12 PM ET | No | BUY | 83.0% | $16 |
| Oct 23, 06:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 82.0% | $26 |
| Oct 23, 05:16 AM ET | No | SELL | 82.0% | $16 |
| Oct 23, 03:06 AM ET | No | SELL | 82.0% | $23 |
| Oct 23, 01:38 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.0% | $40 |
| Oct 22, 10:24 PM ET | No | SELL | 81.0% | $45 |
| Oct 22, 03:43 PM ET | No | BUY | 82.0% | $20 |
| Oct 22, 12:30 PM ET | No | SELL | 79.0% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 18.0%. Next is October 31 at 5.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-arabia-military-action-against-iran-by-20260916?via=bro
$7.3K in total volume, with $139 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 03:29 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 18.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.