As of October 24, 2026, 08:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 6.5% in Saudi troops enter Sanaa by...? — $9.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 6.5%.
Since October 02, 2026, December 31 has traded between 6.5% and 15.0%. It opened at 15.0% and last traded at 6.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 6.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 6.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 6.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 6.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 6.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 6.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 6.5% |
December 31 is favored at 6.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 6¢ | 6.5% | — | $2.4K | 25.9% |
| October 31 | 2¢ | 1.7% | -0.4 pts | $7.0K | 74.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 6¢ / ask 7¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$9.4K has been traded on this event in total, $40 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Saudi troops enter any part of Sanaa, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Saudi troops" refers to active military personnel officially affiliated with Saudi Arabia. Only members of the regular armed forces of Saudi Arabia will qualify. Foreign fighters, private military contractors, mercenaries, or any other personnel recruited, paid, trained, equipped or directed by Saudi Arabia who are not members of the Saudi Arabian armed forces will not qualify, regardless of whether they operate under Saudi command or on Saudi Arabia’s behalf. Members of the armed forces of any other state, including those operating as part of a Saudi-led coalition, will not qualify. "Sanaa" refers to Amanat Al Asimah (the Capital Secretariat), Yemen, comprising the following districts: Old City, Al Wahdah, As Sabain, Assafi’yah, At Tahrir, Ath’thaorah, Az’zal, Bani Al Harith, Ma’ain, and Shu’aub. Sanaa Governorate is excluded and entry into Sanaa Governorate alone will not qualify. "Enter" means that the Saudi troops, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Sanaa, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 256 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finished-Wind | No | 256 | $239 |
| Peppery-Capital | Yes | 200 | $13 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 133 | $9 |
| Sparkling-Skating | No | 130 | $122 |
| Quizzical-Arrogance | Yes | 118 | $8 |
| frosique1 | No | 100 | $94 |
| Exotic-Prize | No | 75 | $70 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 50 | $3 |
| Difficult-Straw | Yes | 43 | $3 |
| 0x54498e4c… | Yes | 31 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:34 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.5% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 01:00 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.6% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 02:18 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.0% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 02:18 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.0% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 02:18 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.0% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 02:18 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.0% | $4 |
| Oct 19, 05:13 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.9% | $0 |
| Oct 19, 05:12 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 19, 01:02 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.1% | $0 |
| Oct 17, 01:28 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.0% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 6.5%. Next is October 31 at 1.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-troops-enter-sanaa-by?via=bro
$9.4K in total volume, with $40 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 6.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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