As of October 24, 2026, 07:51 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2026 at 15.0% in Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by...? — $119.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2026, is priced at 15.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: -5.5 pts; past month: -6.5 pts.
Since September 12, 2026, December 31, 2026 has traded between 12.5% and 39.0%. It opened at 39.0% and last traded at 14.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 20.5% |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 21.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 20.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 20.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 20.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 15.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 14.5% |
December 31, 2026 is favored at 15.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 15¢ | 15.0% | +0.5 pts | $27.6K | 23.0% |
| October 31, 2026 | 5¢ | 4.5% | — | $25.8K | 21.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 14¢ / ask 16¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$119.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if active military personnel officially affiliated with Saudi Arabia enter Yemen for combat-related military purposes by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, they must be 1) officially acknowledged as active military by Saudi Arabia; 2) be publicly acknowledged to have entered Yemen for a combat-related military purpose. For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution they need be active duty and acknowledged as described above. Participation in a combat role is necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes" (e.g. military personnel providing training or intelligence support would not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, however infantry engaging Yemeni forces, or personnel conducting combat operations from Yemeni soil would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution). Only members of the regular armed forces of Saudi Arabia will qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. Foreign fighters, private military contractors, mercenaries, or any other personnel recruited, paid, trained, equipped or directed by Saudi Arabia who are not members of the Saudi Arabian armed forces will not qualify, regardless of whether they operate under Saudi command or on Saudi Arabia’s behalf. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,541 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peppery-Capital | No | 1,541 | $1.3K |
| Unfit-Coleslaw | Yes | 1,400 | $210 |
| Immaterial-Stalk | No | 1,225 | $1.0K |
| NoSteinNoGate | Yes | 821 | $123 |
| Circular-Sandpaper-Larder | No | 621 | $528 |
| Tough-Garter | Yes | 543 | $82 |
| Noteworthy-Barn | No | 443 | $377 |
| Monstrous-Dew | Yes | 439 | $66 |
| Hideous-Racer | No | 431 | $367 |
| Obvious-Eyebrow | No | 404 | $344 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 10:15 AM ET | No | SELL | 84.0% | $6 |
| Oct 21, 12:47 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 16.0% | $2 |
| Oct 19, 12:07 AM ET | No | BUY | 81.0% | $26 |
| Oct 18, 04:20 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $1 |
| Oct 18, 03:00 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 19.9% | $56 |
| Oct 18, 08:31 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.2% | $20 |
| Oct 17, 12:33 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.4% | $60 |
| Oct 17, 04:37 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $2 |
| Oct 17, 01:12 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $3 |
| Oct 16, 10:54 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.5% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 15.0%. Next is October 31, 2026 at 4.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-troops-fighting-in-yemen-by?via=bro
$119.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2026, priced at 15.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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