As of October 24, 2026, 07:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 97.8% in SBF released from custody in 2026? — $468.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 97.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.1 pts; past month: +0.4 pts.
Since February 24, 2026, No has traded between 86.5% and 98.7%. It opened at 89.5% and last traded at 97.8%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 97.9% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 97.9% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 97.7% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.7% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 97.7% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 97.8% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 97.8% |
No is favored at 97.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 98¢ | 97.8% | — | $468.2K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 2¢ | 2.2% | — | $468.2K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 3¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$468.2K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Sam Bankman-Fried is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Sam Bankman-Fried to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 17,049 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vapid-Subprime | No | 17,049 | $16.7K |
| Dense-Scheme | No | 10,000 | $9.8K |
| Quizzical-Hire | No | 6,259 | $6.1K |
| Lasting-Dessert | No | 5,000 | $4.9K |
| Ample-Instance | Yes | 4,914 | $111 |
| Knotty-Event | Yes | 4,091 | $92 |
| Sniveling-Oak | Yes | 3,845 | $87 |
| Tremendous-Divide | Yes | 3,526 | $79 |
| Untimely-Removal | Yes | 3,442 | $77 |
| Growling-Dial | No | 3,000 | $2.9K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 04:41 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.3% | $0 |
| Oct 14, 09:15 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.1% | $4 |
| Oct 14, 08:41 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.5% | $9 |
| Oct 14, 08:28 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.4% | $5 |
| Oct 14, 05:37 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.6% | $3 |
| Oct 14, 05:33 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.1% | $1 |
| Oct 14, 05:30 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.1% | $1 |
| Oct 14, 05:28 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.1% | $1 |
| Oct 14, 05:25 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.3% | $2 |
| Oct 14, 05:23 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.8% | $6 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 97.8%. Next is Yes at 2.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/sbf-released-from-custody-in-2026?via=bro
$468.2K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 97.8% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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