As of October 24, 2026, 07:44 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 28.5% in SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...? — $1.06M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 28.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -3.0 pts; past month: -5.0 pts.
Since January 21, 2026, December 31 has traded between 12.5% and 81.5%. It opened at 38.0% and last traded at 28.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 32.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 31.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 30.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 29.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 28.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 29.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 28.5% |
December 31 is favored at 28.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 28¢ | 28.5% | -0.5 pts | $88.0K | 8.3% |
| October 31 | 3¢ | 2.6% | +1.3 pts | $14.7K | 1.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 28¢ / ask 29¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.06M has been traded on this event in total, $125 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities. The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,760 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Functional-Heartthrob | Yes | 1,760 | $502 |
| Inferior-Plough-Acrylic | No | 937 | $670 |
| Trained-Sniffle | Yes | 669 | $191 |
| Physical-Savannah | Yes | 631 | $180 |
| Belated-Meringue | No | 619 | $442 |
| Fitting-Fiber | No | 539 | $386 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 440 | $125 |
| Studious-Windchime | No | 432 | $309 |
| Bold-Health | No | 355 | $254 |
| Creative-Wheel | Yes | 326 | $93 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:05 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.9% | $119 |
| Oct 22, 08:59 AM ET | No | SELL | 71.0% | $14 |
| Oct 21, 04:23 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 28.0% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 02:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 71.4% | $14 |
| Oct 21, 02:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 70.5% | $97 |
| Oct 21, 02:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 71.0% | $14 |
| Oct 21, 12:55 AM ET | No | SELL | 67.0% | $7 |
| Oct 21, 12:55 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 12:55 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $6 |
| Oct 21, 12:55 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $6 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 28.5%. Next is October 31 at 2.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/scotus-accepts-sports-event-contract-case-by-july-31-2026?via=bro
$1.06M in total volume, with $125 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 28.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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