As of October 24, 2026, 09:01 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yes at 85.5% in SCOTUS invalidates AR-15 bans? — $1.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Yes, is priced at 85.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past month: -0.5 pts.
Since July 01, 2026, Yes has traded between 52.0% and 89.0%. It opened at 52.0% and last traded at 85.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 85.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 85.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 87.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 87.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 88.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 85.5% |
Yes is favored at 85.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 86¢ | 85.5% | — | $1.9K | 100.0% |
| No | 14¢ | 14.5% | — | $1.9K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 7¢ (bid 82¢ / ask 89¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.9K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end August 01, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 305 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weird-Freedom | Yes | 305 | $261 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 160 | $23 |
| Evil-Row | No | 74 | $11 |
| 0x546029093abad5c5615f72c903908baccfc8c7b5 | Yes | 51 | $44 |
| Infatuated-Nun | No | 50 | $7 |
| Skeletal-Liver | No | 42 | $6 |
| Original-Anything-Petition | No | 18 | $3 |
| Embarrassed-Hill-Fold | No | 8 | $1 |
| Wordy-Doctrine | No | 5 | $1 |
| Wicked-Hops | Yes | 4 | $3 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 02:06 AM ET | No | BUY | 16.0% | $1 |
| Oct 14, 12:47 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 84.0% | $1 |
| Oct 13, 05:35 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 79.0% | $5 |
| Oct 12, 12:17 PM ET | No | SELL | 20.0% | $0 |
| Oct 12, 12:12 AM ET | No | SELL | 20.0% | $0 |
| Oct 11, 10:29 AM ET | No | SELL | 20.0% | $0 |
| Oct 11, 01:23 AM ET | No | SELL | 20.0% | $0 |
| Oct 06, 12:39 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 75.0% | $1 |
| Oct 06, 10:24 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 74.0% | $1 |
| Oct 06, 07:50 AM ET | No | SELL | 20.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yes at 85.5%. Next is No at 14.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/scotus-invalidates-ar-15-bans-20260630193915657?via=bro
$1.9K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end August 01, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Yes, priced at 85.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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