As of October 24, 2026, 06:36 PM ET, Polymarket traders price OpenAI at 56.0% in Second-best AI Agent Lab end of December? — $14.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, OpenAI, is priced at 56.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.5 pts; past week: +10.5 pts.
Since October 01, 2026, OpenAI has traded between 28.5% and 59.0%. It opened at 28.5% and last traded at 59.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 45.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 47.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 46.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 45.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 45.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 53.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 59.0% |
OpenAI is favored at 56.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | 56¢ | 56.0% | -2.5 pts | $4.7K | 33.5% |
| Company A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Anthropic | 23¢ | 23.0% | +4.5 pts | $4.0K | 28.4% |
| 16¢ | 16.5% | — | $1.0K | 7.2% | |
| Moonshot | 4¢ | 3.9% | -1.7 pts | $378 | 2.7% |
| Meta | 2¢ | 1.9% | -0.7 pts | $333 | 2.4% |
| SpaceXAI | 1¢ | 1.3% | — | $309 | 2.2% |
| DeepSeek | 1¢ | 1.2% | — | $301 | 2.1% |
| Alibaba | 1¢ | 1.1% | — | $274 | 1.9% |
| Xiaomi | 1¢ | 1.1% | -0.4 pts | $322 | 2.3% |
| ByteDance | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $235 | 1.7% |
| Baidu | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $169 | 1.2% |
| Meituan | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $197 | 1.4% |
| Microsoft | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $169 | 1.2% |
| Mistral | 0¢ | 0.5% | — | $258 | 1.8% |
| Z.ai | 0¢ | 0.3% | — | $361 | 2.5% |
| Tencent | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $310 | 2.2% |
| MiniMax | 0¢ | 0.1% | -0.1 pts | $221 | 1.6% |
| Nvidia | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $252 | 1.8% |
| Amazon | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $283 | 2.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 55¢ / ask 57¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$14.2K has been traded on this event in total, $570 of it in the last 24 hours, across 33 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 479 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 479 | $211 |
| Decisive-Spokeswoman | Yes | 325 | $182 |
| Arid-Cinema | Yes | 100 | $56 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | Yes | 90 | $50 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 69 | $39 |
| Sore-Pitching | Yes | 62 | $35 |
| Attentive-Crewman | No | 60 | $26 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 52 | $23 |
| Perfumed-Moat | No | 40 | $18 |
| Deserted-Bitter | No | 40 | $18 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 10:01 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 55.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 07:47 AM ET | No | BUY | 76.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 06:12 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 55.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 05:56 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 16.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 05:41 AM ET | No | BUY | 50.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 05:41 AM ET | No | BUY | 50.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 05:41 AM ET | No | SELL | 67.0% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 05:41 AM ET | No | BUY | 84.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 05:41 AM ET | No | BUY | 84.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 05:41 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.5% | $16 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is OpenAI at 56.0%. Next is Company A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/second-best-ai-agent-lab-end-of-december-2026?via=bro
$14.2K in total volume, with $570 traded in the last 24 hours across 33 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
OpenAI, priced at 56.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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