As of October 24, 2026, 06:30 PM ET, Polymarket traders price OpenAI at 92.0% in Second-best AI Agent Lab end of October? — $75.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, OpenAI, is priced at 92.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +6.0 pts; past week: +25.5 pts; past month: +11.5 pts.
Since August 13, 2026, OpenAI has traded between 23.0% and 92.0%. It opened at 23.0% and last traded at 92.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 78.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 81.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 91.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 92.0% |
OpenAI is favored at 92.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | 92¢ | 92.0% | +6.0 pts | $27.1K | 35.9% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| 3¢ | 3.4% | -0.2 pts | $5.6K | 7.4% | |
| Anthropic | 3¢ | 3.2% | -0.4 pts | $16.4K | 21.7% |
| Meta | 3¢ | 2.6% | +0.9 pts | $3.0K | 4.0% |
| Moonshot | 1¢ | 1.1% | -1.8 pts | $9.9K | 13.2% |
| SpaceXAI | 1¢ | 0.6% | +0.1 pts | $2.2K | 2.9% |
| Z.ai | 1¢ | 0.5% | +0.2 pts | $2.0K | 2.6% |
| DeepSeek | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.6K | 2.1% |
| Nvidia | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $826 | 1.1% |
| Alibaba | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $976 | 1.3% |
| Xiaomi | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $478 | 0.6% |
| MiniMax | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $987 | 1.3% |
| ByteDance | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $825 | 1.1% |
| Baidu | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $839 | 1.1% |
| Amazon | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $933 | 1.2% |
| Mistral | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $578 | 0.8% |
| Meituan | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $949 | 1.3% |
| Microsoft | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $400 | 0.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 91¢ / ask 93¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$75.4K has been traded on this event in total, $1.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 32 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,272 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 2,272 | $182 |
| Conscious-Belligerency | Yes | 1,390 | $1.3K |
| All-Calculator | Yes | 850 | $782 |
| Hideous-Racer | Yes | 398 | $366 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 316 | $25 |
| Decisive-Spokeswoman | Yes | 300 | $276 |
| Sore-Pitching | Yes | 202 | $186 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 167 | $13 |
| Perfumed-Moat | No | 161 | $13 |
| Velvety-Burn | No | 153 | $12 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 08:14 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 93.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 07:25 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 90.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 07:17 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.9% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 07:09 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 89.0% | $15 |
| Oct 23, 07:09 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 90.0% | $50 |
| Oct 23, 07:09 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 87.8% | $264 |
| Oct 23, 07:09 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 90.0% | $36 |
| Oct 23, 07:09 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 90.0% | $18 |
| Oct 23, 07:09 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 88.0% | $18 |
| Oct 23, 07:09 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 88.0% | $97 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is OpenAI at 92.0%. Next is Other at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/second-best-ai-agent-lab-end-of-october-20260812152901709?via=bro
$75.4K in total volume, with $1.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 32 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent.
OpenAI, priced at 92.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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