As of October 24, 2026, 07:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Anthropic at 83.5% in Second-best AI Lab end of October? — $73.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Anthropic, is priced at 83.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +16.0 pts; past month: +76.5 pts.
Since August 13, 2026, Anthropic has traded between 5.0% and 83.5%. It opened at 16.0% and last traded at 83.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 62.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 62.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 65.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 68.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 73.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 83.5% |
Anthropic is favored at 83.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 84¢ | 83.5% | — | $18.4K | 25.1% |
| Company A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Company K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| 10¢ | 10.0% | +1.0 pts | $20.1K | 27.4% | |
| Meta | 4¢ | 3.9% | — | $6.8K | 9.3% |
| Moonshot | 0¢ | 0.5% | +0.1 pts | $2.3K | 3.1% |
| StepFun | 0¢ | 0.5% | — | $779 | 1.1% |
| Alibaba | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $2.6K | 3.6% |
| Baidu | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $1.9K | 2.6% |
| Xiaomi | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $2.7K | 3.7% |
| OpenAI | 0¢ | 0.3% | — | $2.2K | 3.0% |
| Z.ai | 0¢ | 0.3% | — | $2.3K | 3.2% |
| SpaceXAI | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $2.0K | 2.7% |
| DeepSeek | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.8K | 2.5% |
| Thinky | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $2.3K | 3.1% |
| Mistral | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.1K | 1.5% |
| Tencent | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.4K | 1.8% |
| Amazon | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $716 | 1.0% |
| ByteDance | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $922 | 1.3% |
| Nvidia | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $551 | 0.7% |
| MiniMax | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $967 | 1.3% |
| Meituan | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $789 | 1.1% |
| Microsoft | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $710 | 1.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 82¢ / ask 85¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$73.5K has been traded on this event in total, $83 of it in the last 24 hours, across 32 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,143 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 3,143 | $519 |
| All-Calculator | Yes | 1,350 | $1.1K |
| Sparse-Cookie | No | 1,319 | $218 |
| Sniveling-Dart | Yes | 1,088 | $908 |
| Conscious-Belligerency | Yes | 961 | $803 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 553 | $91 |
| Queasy-Airship | Yes | 452 | $377 |
| Thrifty-Representation-Influx | Yes | 357 | $298 |
| Decimal-Covariate | Yes | 355 | $296 |
| Lavish-Beck | Yes | 339 | $283 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 09:22 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 85.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 09:22 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 09:21 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 85.0% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 08:05 AM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 06:10 AM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $14 |
| Oct 23, 11:56 AM ET | No | BUY | 89.0% | $17 |
| Oct 23, 11:56 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 08:06 AM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $34 |
| Oct 22, 10:44 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $6 |
| Oct 22, 10:44 PM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $88 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Anthropic at 83.5%. Next is Company A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/second-best-ai-lab-end-of-october?via=bro
$73.5K in total volume, with $83 traded in the last 24 hours across 32 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs.
Anthropic, priced at 83.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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