Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Serbia Election: United Serbia Vote Share?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 45-50% at 39.0% in Serbia Election: United Serbia Vote Share? — $58.1K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $6.9K.
Leading outcome
45-50%
39%
A 39.0% price implies roughly a 39-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D +11.0 pts
45-50%39.0%
40-45%30.5%
Bid
38¢
Ask
40¢
Spread
2¢
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Range since September 25, 2026: 20.5% – 39.0% · Opened at 26.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Serbia Election: United Serbia Vote Share?
Category
Serbia, Politics, Elections, Global Elections, International Election Props, Serbia Elections
Scheduled end
October 25, 2026, 07:59 PM ET
Total volume
$58.1K
Volume (24h)
$6.9K
Liquidity
$93.4K
Markets
6
Leading outcome
45-50% — 39.0%
Resolution source
https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 45-50%, is priced at 39.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: +11.0 pts.

Since September 25, 2026, 45-50% has traded between 20.5% and 39.0%. It opened at 26.0% and last traded at 39.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202628.5%
Oct 17, 202628.0%
Oct 18, 202627.5%
Oct 19, 202624.0%
Oct 20, 202620.5%
Oct 22, 202636.5%
Oct 23, 202639.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

45-50% is favored at 39.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
45-50%39¢39.0%—$12.1K20.8%
40-45%30¢30.5%+1.5 pts$10.8K18.6%
35-40%14¢14.0%-3.5 pts$8.7K15.0%
50-55%8¢7.5%-2.0 pts$9.7K16.8%
<35%6¢5.7%+2.2 pts$7.5K12.9%
55%+2¢1.6%+0.1 pts$9.3K16.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 38¢ / ask 40¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$58.1K has been traded on this event in total, $6.9K of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 07:59 PM ET.

Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the valid vote won by the electoral list “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia” in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia” divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named electoral list. Votes attributed to another list or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).

Resolution source: https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,652 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No5,652$3.4K
Serious-Woodchuck-StrikeYes1,205$470
Ironclad-LeptocephalusYes1,176$459
High-Level-PoleYes939$366
All-Peasant-DrugYes814$317
Dead-LavaYes786$306
Known-UseNo590$360
Ignorant-HoseYes350$137
Defenseless-Wingtip-CompostYes334$130
0x6e793da3…Yes297$116

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $505 at 41.9%BUY Yes — $262 at 43.5%BUY No — $114 at 90.8%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 07:56 PM ETNoBUY93.0%$19
Oct 24, 07:56 PM ETNoBUY67.0%$5
Oct 24, 07:56 PM ETNoBUY67.0%$15
Oct 24, 07:56 PM ETNoBUY67.0%$5
Oct 24, 07:56 PM ETYesBUY39.1%$100
Oct 24, 07:56 PM ETNoBUY93.0%$7
Oct 24, 07:56 PM ETNoBUY93.0%$22
Oct 24, 07:56 PM ETNoBUY93.0%$8
Oct 24, 07:40 PM ETNoBUY65.0%$39
Oct 24, 07:40 PM ETNoBUY65.2%$20

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Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia 71.5% · 24H VOL $649.0K

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Serbia Election: United Serbia Vote Share??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 45-50% at 39.0%. Next is 40-45% at 30.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/serbia-election-united-serbia-vote-share?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Serbia Election: United Serbia Vote Share??

$58.1K in total volume, with $6.9K traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.

When does Serbia Election: United Serbia Vote Share? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 07:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/.

What is the most likely outcome of Serbia Election: United Serbia Vote Share?, according to Polymarket traders?

45-50%, priced at 39.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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