As of October 24, 2026, 07:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 45-50% at 39.0% in Serbia Election: United Serbia Vote Share? — $58.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 45-50%, is priced at 39.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +11.0 pts.
Since September 25, 2026, 45-50% has traded between 20.5% and 39.0%. It opened at 26.0% and last traded at 39.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 28.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 28.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 27.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 24.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 20.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 36.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 39.0% |
45-50% is favored at 39.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45-50% | 39¢ | 39.0% | — | $12.1K | 20.8% |
| 40-45% | 30¢ | 30.5% | +1.5 pts | $10.8K | 18.6% |
| 35-40% | 14¢ | 14.0% | -3.5 pts | $8.7K | 15.0% |
| 50-55% | 8¢ | 7.5% | -2.0 pts | $9.7K | 16.8% |
| <35% | 6¢ | 5.7% | +2.2 pts | $7.5K | 12.9% |
| 55%+ | 2¢ | 1.6% | +0.1 pts | $9.3K | 16.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 38¢ / ask 40¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$58.1K has been traded on this event in total, $6.9K of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 07:59 PM ET.
Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the valid vote won by the electoral list “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia” in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia” divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named electoral list. Votes attributed to another list or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).
Resolution source: https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,652 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 5,652 | $3.4K |
| Serious-Woodchuck-Strike | Yes | 1,205 | $470 |
| Ironclad-Leptocephalus | Yes | 1,176 | $459 |
| High-Level-Pole | Yes | 939 | $366 |
| All-Peasant-Drug | Yes | 814 | $317 |
| Dead-Lava | Yes | 786 | $306 |
| Known-Use | No | 590 | $360 |
| Ignorant-Hose | Yes | 350 | $137 |
| Defenseless-Wingtip-Compost | Yes | 334 | $130 |
| 0x6e793da3… | Yes | 297 | $116 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:56 PM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 07:56 PM ET | No | BUY | 67.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 07:56 PM ET | No | BUY | 67.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 07:56 PM ET | No | BUY | 67.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 07:56 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 39.1% | $100 |
| Oct 24, 07:56 PM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 07:56 PM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $22 |
| Oct 24, 07:56 PM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 07:40 PM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $39 |
| Oct 24, 07:40 PM ET | No | BUY | 65.2% | $20 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 45-50% at 39.0%. Next is 40-45% at 30.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/serbia-election-united-serbia-vote-share?via=bro
$58.1K in total volume, with $6.9K traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 07:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/.
45-50%, priced at 39.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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