Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:33 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 22 at 90.0% in Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...? — $59.1K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $926.
Leading outcome
October 22
90%
A 90.0% price implies roughly a 90-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +0.5 pts7D +39.5 pts
October 2290.0%
October 574.9%
Bid
86¢
Ask
94¢
Spread
8¢
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Range since October 01, 2026: 30.0% – 90.0% · Opened at 30.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
Category
Oil, Iran, Hormuz, tanker, Military, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz
Scheduled end
October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$59.1K
Volume (24h)
$926
Liquidity
$20.9K
Markets
15
Leading outcome
October 22 — 90.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, October 22, is priced at 90.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +39.5 pts.

Since October 01, 2026, October 22 has traded between 30.0% and 90.0%. It opened at 30.0% and last traded at 90.0%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202650.5%
Oct 18, 202649.5%
Oct 19, 202650.5%
Oct 20, 202649.0%
Oct 22, 202671.5%
Oct 23, 202689.5%
Oct 24, 202690.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

October 22 is favored at 90.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
October 2290¢90.0%+0.5 pts$1.3K2.2%
October 575¢74.9%+0.1 pts$9991.7%
October 470¢69.5%+11.2 pts$1.3K2.2%
October 2564¢64.0%-1.5 pts$2160.4%
October 1163¢62.9%—$9191.6%
October 2455¢54.5%-7.0 pts$6471.1%
October 3050¢50.5%+0.5 pts$00.0%
October 2950¢50.0%+1.0 pts$00.0%
October 3150¢50.0%—$200.0%
October 2750¢49.5%-1.0 pts$00.0%
October 2850¢49.5%-0.5 pts$200.0%
October 1542¢41.5%+3.0 pts$1.6K2.6%
October 2642¢41.5%-9.5 pts$1090.2%
October 2332¢32.5%+1.0 pts$2230.4%
October 193¢2.6%—$6231.1%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 8¢ (bid 86¢ / ask 94¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$59.1K has been traded on this event in total, $926 of it in the last 24 hours, across 15 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea. No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 237 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Belated-GlueNo237$24
Wicked-FlourYes137$123
Prickly-PassportYes125$112
Mixed-Morsel-EmbossingYes55$50
Grumpy-InvaderNo50$5
Known-UseYes38$34
Prudent-Going-VelvetNo28$3
Required-TacticsNo20$2
These-Latency-PerspectiveNo20$2
Direct-ChainstayNo10$1

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $207 at 55.8%SELL Yes — $133 at 78.6%BUY Yes — $100 at 97.1%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 04:14 PM ETYesBUY93.0%$46
Oct 24, 04:08 PM ETYesBUY89.0%$18
Oct 24, 04:00 PM ETYesBUY85.6%$40
Oct 24, 02:38 PM ETNoBUY11.0%$12
Oct 24, 02:38 PM ETNoBUY12.0%$2
Oct 24, 12:26 PM ETYesSELL89.0%$31
Oct 23, 10:46 PM ETYesBUY94.0%$32
Oct 23, 09:51 PM ETNoBUY5.0%$1
Oct 23, 09:51 PM ETYesBUY94.0%$85
Oct 23, 02:39 PM ETYesBUY86.0%$86

Related markets

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 22 at 90.0%. Next is October 5 at 74.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/shipping-successfully-targeted-in-hormuz-on-october-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...??

$59.1K in total volume, with $926 traded in the last 24 hours across 15 markets.

When does Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?, according to Polymarket traders?

October 22, priced at 90.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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