As of October 24, 2026, 06:33 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 22 at 90.0% in Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...? — $59.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, October 22, is priced at 90.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +39.5 pts.
Since October 01, 2026, October 22 has traded between 30.0% and 90.0%. It opened at 30.0% and last traded at 90.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 50.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 49.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 50.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 49.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 90.0% |
October 22 is favored at 90.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 22 | 90¢ | 90.0% | +0.5 pts | $1.3K | 2.2% |
| October 5 | 75¢ | 74.9% | +0.1 pts | $999 | 1.7% |
| October 4 | 70¢ | 69.5% | +11.2 pts | $1.3K | 2.2% |
| October 25 | 64¢ | 64.0% | -1.5 pts | $216 | 0.4% |
| October 11 | 63¢ | 62.9% | — | $919 | 1.6% |
| October 24 | 55¢ | 54.5% | -7.0 pts | $647 | 1.1% |
| October 30 | 50¢ | 50.5% | +0.5 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| October 29 | 50¢ | 50.0% | +1.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| October 31 | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $20 | 0.0% |
| October 27 | 50¢ | 49.5% | -1.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| October 28 | 50¢ | 49.5% | -0.5 pts | $20 | 0.0% |
| October 15 | 42¢ | 41.5% | +3.0 pts | $1.6K | 2.6% |
| October 26 | 42¢ | 41.5% | -9.5 pts | $109 | 0.2% |
| October 23 | 32¢ | 32.5% | +1.0 pts | $223 | 0.4% |
| October 19 | 3¢ | 2.6% | — | $623 | 1.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 8¢ (bid 86¢ / ask 94¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$59.1K has been traded on this event in total, $926 of it in the last 24 hours, across 15 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on, or forceful seizure of control is taken of, a commercial ship within the defined area on the specified date, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The defined area consists of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman. An incident occurring outside these three bodies of water will not qualify, including in the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, or the Red Sea. No attribution is required. A qualifying incident will count regardless of the identity of the party responsible, regardless of whether any state or group claims responsibility, and regardless of whether responsibility is denied, disputed, or never established. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by operatives in person. Damaged caused by mines will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 237 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | No | 237 | $24 |
| Wicked-Flour | Yes | 137 | $123 |
| Prickly-Passport | Yes | 125 | $112 |
| Mixed-Morsel-Embossing | Yes | 55 | $50 |
| Grumpy-Invader | No | 50 | $5 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 38 | $34 |
| Prudent-Going-Velvet | No | 28 | $3 |
| Required-Tactics | No | 20 | $2 |
| These-Latency-Perspective | No | 20 | $2 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 10 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:14 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 93.0% | $46 |
| Oct 24, 04:08 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 89.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 04:00 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 85.6% | $40 |
| Oct 24, 02:38 PM ET | No | BUY | 11.0% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 02:38 PM ET | No | BUY | 12.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 12:26 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 89.0% | $31 |
| Oct 23, 10:46 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 94.0% | $32 |
| Oct 23, 09:51 PM ET | No | BUY | 5.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 09:51 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 94.0% | $85 |
| Oct 23, 02:39 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 86.0% | $86 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 22 at 90.0%. Next is October 5 at 74.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/shipping-successfully-targeted-in-hormuz-on-october-2026?via=bro
$59.1K in total volume, with $926 traded in the last 24 hours across 15 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
October 22, priced at 90.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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